IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/wbk/wbpubs/2351.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Growing Old in an Older Brazil : Implications of Population Ageing on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance, and Service Delivery

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Gragnolati
  • Ole Hagen Jorgensen
  • Romero Rocha
  • Anna Fruttero

Abstract

This chapter introduces the main issues associated with population aging, many of which will be investigated in detail throughout the volume. The next section describes the demographic transformation that Brazil has been experiencing and highlights its specific features, including a very rapid population aging process in the next few decades. Then the main economic framework behind this work, the life cycle theory according to which individuals' economic behavior varies according to their age, is discussed. The section after that introduces the first and second demographic dividends associated with the changing population age structure that accompanies the demographic transition of any country. Next covered is how poverty is linked to the life cycle in Brazil and the role of public transfers in reducing poverty among different age groups, followed by an investigation of how public expenditures vary across age groups and generations and what makes Brazil distinct from comparable OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) and Latin American countries. Concluding the chapter are the main findings of the report.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Gragnolati & Ole Hagen Jorgensen & Romero Rocha & Anna Fruttero, 2011. "Growing Old in an Older Brazil : Implications of Population Ageing on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance, and Service Delivery," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2351.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:2351
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/2351/644410PUB00Gro00ID0188020BOX361537B.pdf?sequence=1
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    2. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    3. Corbo, Vittorio & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1991. "Public policies and saving in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 89-115, July.
    4. David N. Weil, 2006. "Population Aging," NBER Working Papers 12147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    6. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
    7. Miguel Székely & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "Household Saving in Developing Countries - Inequality, Demographics and All That: How Different are Latin America and South East Asia?," Research Department Publications 4221, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    8. Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard & Jorgensen, Ole Hagen, 2010. "Reform and backlash to reform : economic effects of ageing and retirement policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5470, The World Bank.
    9. Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May.
    10. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    11. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2008. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28027.
    12. Sebastian Edwards, 1995. "Why are Saving Rates so Different Across Countries?: An International Comparative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Berthold U. Wigger, 1999. "Public Pensions and Growth," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 56(2), pages 241-241, June.
    14. Graham, John W., 1989. "International differences in saving rates and the life cycle hypothesis : Reply and further evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1499-1507, September.
    15. John Y. Campbell & Martin Feldstein, 2001. "Introduction to "Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform"," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 1-10, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Barro, Robert J & Becker, Gary S, 1989. "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 481-501, March.
    17. Kivilcim Metin Ozcan & Asli Gunay & Seda Ertac, 2003. "Determinants of private savings behaviour in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1405-1416.
    18. Jeannine Bailliu & Helmut Reisen, 1998. "Do funded pensions contribute to higher aggregate savings? A cross-country analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(4), pages 692-711, December.
    19. Jorgensen, Ole Hagen & Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard, 2010. "Labor supply and retirement policy in an overlapping generations model with stochastic fertility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5382, The World Bank.
    20. Chakraborty, Shankha, 2004. "Endogenous lifetime and economic growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 119-137, May.
    21. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-Country Savings Regressions," IMF Working Papers 1999/128, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Masson, Paul R & Bayoumi, Tamim & Samiei, Hossein, 1998. "International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 483-501, September.
    23. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    24. Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 2000. "What drives private saving around the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2309, The World Bank.
    25. Kokila Doshi, 1994. "Determinants Of The Saving Rate: An International Comparison," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 37-45, January.
    26. Miguel Székely & Orazio P. Attanasio, 2000. "Household Saving in Developing Countries - Inequality, Demographics and All That: How Different are Latin America and South East Asia?," Research Department Publications 4221, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    27. Nancy L. Stokey, 1979. "Do Bequests Offset Social Security?," Discussion Papers 376, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    28. Nerlove, Marc & Raut, Lakshmi K., 1993. "Growth models with endogenous population: A general framework," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 20, pages 1117-1174, Elsevier.
    29. Paul R. Gregory & Manouchehr Mokhtari & Wolfram Schrettl, 1999. "Do The Russians Really Save That Much? - Alternate Estimates From The Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 694-703, November.
    30. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "Demographic Change, Institutional Settings, and Labor Supply," PGDA Working Papers 4208, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    31. Mr. Christian Thimann & Mrs. Anuradha Dayal-Gulati, 1997. "Saving in Southeast Asia and Latin America Compared: Searching for Policy Lessons," IMF Working Papers 1997/110, International Monetary Fund.
    32. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2003. "Contraception and the Celtic Tiger," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 229-247.
    33. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 5-44, October.
    34. Auerbach,Alan J. & Lee,Ronald D. (ed.), 2001. "Demographic Change and Fiscal Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662444, October.
    35. Mukesh Chawla & Gordon Betcherman & Arup Banerji, 2007. "From Red to Gray : The "Third Transition" of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6741.
    36. John Y. Campbell & Martin Feldstein, 2001. "Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number camp01-1.
    37. repec:bla:scandj:v:94:y:1992:i:2:p:215-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Haque, N. U. & Pesaran, M. H. & Sharma, Sunil, 1999. "Neglected Heterogeneity and Dynamics in Cross-country Savings Regressions," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9904, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    40. Mechthild Schrooten & Sabine Stephan, 2005. "Private savings and transition," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 287-309, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michele Gragnolati & Magnus Lindelow & Bernard Couttolenc, 2013. "Twenty Years of Health System Reform in Brazil : An Assessment of the Sistema Único de Saúde," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15801.
    2. Scheil-Adlung, Xenia., 2015. "Long-term care protection for older persons : a review of coverage deficits in 46 countries," ILO Working Papers 994886493402676, International Labour Organization.
    3. Marta Castilho & Marta Menéndez & Aude A. Sztulman, 2015. "Poverty and Inequality Dynamics in Manaus: Legacy of a Free Trade Zone?," Working Papers halshs-01245394, HAL.
    4. Rocha de Jesus Fernandes, Anderson & Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo, 2024. "Aging, education and some other implications for the silver dividend in developing countries: Evidence from Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    5. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    6. Małgorzata Ćwiek & Katarzyna Maj-Waśniowska & Katarzyna Stabryła-Chudzio, 2021. "Assessment of Poverty by Municipalities in the Context of Population Ageing—The Case of Małopolskie Voivodeship," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-21, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Canning & Sangeeta Raja & Abdo S. Yazbeck, 2015. "Africa's Demographic Transition [La transition démographique de l’Afrique]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22036.
    2. Ismail, Aisha & Rashid, Kashif, 2013. "Determinants of household saving: Cointegrated evidence from Pakistan (1975–2011)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 524-531.
    3. Grigoli, Francesco & Herman, Alexander & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2018. "Saving in the world," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 257-270.
    4. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2001. "Una Revisión del COmportamiento y de los determinantes del ahorro en el mundo," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Felipe Morandé & Rodrigo Vergara & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Edit (ed.),Análisis Empírico del Ahorro en Chile, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 13-48, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Mechthild Schrooten & Sabine Stephan, 2004. "Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Private Savings in Europe?: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Data Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 431, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Mechthild Schrooten & Sabine Stephan, 2003. "Private Savings in Eastern European EU-Accession Countries: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Data Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 372, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Adema, Yvonne & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2015. "Business cycle fluctuations and household saving in OECD countries: A panel data analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 214-233.
    8. Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 2000. "What drives private saving around the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2309, The World Bank.
    9. Mr. Francesco Grigoli & Alexander Herman & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2014. "World Saving," IMF Working Papers 2014/204, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 165-181, May.
    11. Stijn Rocher & Michael Stierle, 2015. "Household saving rates in the EU: Why do they differ so much?," Working Papers 2015.01, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    12. Kam-Ki Tang & Benjamin ShiJie Wong, "undated". "The Ageing, Longevity and Crowding Out Effects on Private and Public Savings: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Analysis," MRG Discussion Paper Series 3409, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    13. Bussolo,Maurizio & Simone,Schotte & Matytsin,Mikhail, 2015. "Population aging and households? saving in the Russian Federation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7443, The World Bank.
    14. Philemon Kwame Opoku, 2019. "The Short-Run and Long-Run Determinants of Household Saving:Evidence from OECD countries," Working Papers REM 2019/0110, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    15. Rodrigo Cerda & J. Rodrigo Fuentes & Gonzalo García & José Ignacio Llodrá, 2015. "Understanding Domestic Savings in Chile," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 91437, Inter-American Development Bank.
    16. Philemon Kwame Opoku, 0. "The Short-Run and Long-Run Determinants of Household Saving: Evidence from OECD Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 0, pages 1-35.
    17. Philemon Kwame Opoku, 2020. "The Short-Run and Long-Run Determinants of Household Saving: Evidence from OECD Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 430-464, September.
    18. Caroline Van Rijckeghem, 2010. "Determinants of Private Saving in Turkey: An Update," Working Papers 2010/04, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    19. Bussolo, Maurizio & Schotte, Simone & Matytsin, Mikhail, 2017. "Accounting for the bias against the life-cycle hypothesis in survey data: An example for Russia," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 185-207.
    20. Cerda, Rodrigo & Fuentes, J. Rodrigo & García, Gonzalo & Llodrá, José Ignacio, 2015. "Understanding Domestic Savings in Chile," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7254, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:2351. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tal Ayalon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.