IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/war/wpaper/2023-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of the accession to the EU on trade flows of the Visegrad countries. Analysis based on the synthetic control method

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Pochmara

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Jan Jakub Michałek

    (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the trade implications of accession to the European Union (EU) for four Visegrad (V4) countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia). The estimation of the effects of integration with the EU was carried out as a comparative case study using the synthetic control method (SCM). The selection of control variables of “donor countries”, necessary to construct counterfactual trade flows of “synthetic” countries, is based on the gravity model. We analyse the impact of the accession to the EU for 307 country pairs, which covers about 85% of the trade flows of V4 countries. Using this SCM approach we find a positive impact of accession to the EU on the country's performance 15 years after accession. The trade growth resulting from the accession - in comparison to counterfactual aggregates - is large but differentiated. The exports of V4 countries doubled, except for Hungary, while imports increased by 51% on average. Consequently, the trade balances of V4 countries greatly improved compared to counterfactuals. The trade flows strongly increased among V-4 countries, in contrast with the “Hub and spoke” hypothesis. We checked the robustness of our empirical results by running a placebo test.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Pochmara & Jan Jakub Michałek, 2023. "The impact of the accession to the EU on trade flows of the Visegrad countries. Analysis based on the synthetic control method," Working Papers 2023-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    • Handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2023-21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Peter Egger & Patrick A. McLaughlin, 2008. "Do Economic Integration Agreements Actually Work? Issues in Understanding the Causes and Consequences of the Growth of Regionalism," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 461-497, April.
    2. Amat Adarov, 2023. "Eurasian economic integration: impact evaluation using the gravity model and the synthetic control methods," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(2), pages 467-504, May.
    3. Daria Taglioni & Deborah Winkler, 2016. "Making Global Value Chains Work for Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 24426.
    4. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    5. Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2017. "The Impact of Trade Agreements in Latin America using the Synthetic Control Method," IMF Working Papers 2017/045, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ivana Rukavina, 2022. "Evaluation of macroeconomic outcomes and the seven-year membership of Croatia in the European Union," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 1-42.
    7. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    8. Bibek Adhikari & James Alm, 2016. "Evaluating the Economic Effects of Flat Tax Reforms Using Synthetic Control Methods," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(2), pages 437-463, October.
    9. Campos, Nauro F. & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Moretti, Luigi, 2014. "Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method," IZA Discussion Papers 8162, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2011. "An assessment of the Europe agreements' effects on bilateral trade, GDP, and welfare," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-279, February.
    11. Campos, Nauro F. & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Moretti, Luigi, 2019. "Institutional integration and economic growth in Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 88-104.
    12. Luca De Benedictis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2005. "Hub-and-Spoke or else? Free trade agreements in the 'enlarged' European Union," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 2(2), pages 245-260, December.
    13. Martin Grančay & Ērika Šumilo & Jolita Vveinhardt, 2015. "Trade in Central and Eastern European Countries Ten Years after Their EU Accession – Is There Convergence?," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 37(4), pages 443-460, December.
    14. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Campos, Nauro & Moretti, Luigi, 2014. "Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Co," CEPR Discussion Papers 9968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. repec:wly:soecon:v:83:2:y:2016:p:437-463 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    18. Emilia Gyoerk, 2017. "Economic Costs and Benefits of EMU Membership from the Perspective of a Non-member," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 893-921, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dennis Essers & Stefaan Ide, 2017. "The IMF and precautionary lending : An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the flexible credit line," Working Paper Research 323, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Essers, Dennis & Ide, Stefaan, 2019. "The IMF and precautionary lending: An empirical evaluation of the selectivity and effectiveness of the Flexible Credit Line," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 25-61.
    3. González-Rozada, Martín & Ruffo, Hernán, 2024. "Do trade agreements contribute to the decline in labor share? Evidence from Latin American countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    4. Jo Reynaerts & Jakob Vanschoonbeek, 2022. "The economics of state fragmentation: Assessing the economic impact of secession," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 82-115, January.
    5. Barati Mehdi, 2019. "Punishment Severity and Crime: The Case of Arkansas," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Hagemejer Jan & Michałek Jan J. & Svatko Pavel, 2021. "Economic impact of the EU Eastern enlargement on New Member States revisited: The role of economic institutions," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 8(55), pages 126-143, January.
    7. Francesca Caselli & Matilde Faralli & Paolo Manasse & Ugo Panizza, 2021. "On the Benefits of Repaying," IMF Working Papers 2021/233, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 21/060, African Governance and Development Institute..
    9. Jacob Bundrick & Weici Yuan, 2019. "Do Targeted Business Subsidies Improve Income and Reduce Poverty? A Synthetic Control Approach," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 33(4), pages 351-375, November.
    10. Robbert Maseland & Rok Spruk, 2023. "The benefits of US statehood: an analysis of the growth effects of joining the USA," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(1), pages 49-89, January.
    11. Born, Benjamin & Müller, Gernot J. & Schularick, Moritz & Sedlacek, Petr, 2017. "The economic consequences of the Brexit Vote," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87174, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Halmai, Péter, 2020. "A dezintegráció gazdaságtana. A brexit esete [The economics of disintegration. The case of Brexit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 837-877.
    13. Nauro Campos & Fabrizio Coricelli & Luigi Moretti, 2015. "Norwegian Rhapsody? The Political Economy Benefits of Regional Integration," Working Papers halshs-01267252, HAL.
    14. Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
    15. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    16. Ivana Rukavina, 2022. "Evaluation of macroeconomic outcomes and the seven-year membership of Croatia in the European Union," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 1-42.
    17. Verstegen, Loes & van Groezen, Bas & Meijdam, Lex, 2017. "Benefits of EMU Participation : Estimates using the Synthetic Control Method," Other publications TiSEM 505ae6bb-8e7a-4d71-9f44-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Samer Matta & Simon Appleton & Michael Bleaney, 2019. "The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 33(1), pages 231-258.
    19. Bibek Adhikari, 2022. "A Guide to Using the Synthetic Control Method to Quantify the Effects of Shocks, Policies, and Shocking Policies," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 67(1), pages 46-63, March.
    20. Nils Verheuvel & Joost Witteman & Marilou Vlaanderen, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method for Dutch Policy Evaluation," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 51-83, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU enlargement; Visegrad countries; trade flows; economic integration; synthetic control method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:war:wpaper:2023-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marcin Bąba (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fesuwpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.