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A decade of Eurasian Integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian Economic Union

Author

Listed:
  • Augusto Cerqua

    (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome)

  • Pierluigi Montalbano

    (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome)

  • Zhansaya Temerbulatova

    (Al-Farabi Kazakh National University)

Abstract

This paper provides a sound ex-post evaluation of the impact of the Eurasian integration on member countries’ bilateral trade after ten years of implementation. We overcome the main limitations of current empirical analyses on the effects of trade agreements, namely the aggregation of tariff and non-tariff barriers and the likely self-selection bias, by applying a mean balancing approach, a novel non-parametric method specifically designed to fully exploit time-series cross-sectional data. We thus compare the trade flows of the member countries in the Eurasian agreement with 754 exporter-importer pairs located in the Eurasian continent having similar pre-treatment features. Our results confirm the previous literature about the lack of a significant impact of the Eurasian customs union, but find positive net effects of more recent integration steps. These results are robust in respect of several sensitivity tests, and provide evidence of the need to deepen Eurasian integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Augusto Cerqua & Pierluigi Montalbano & Zhansaya Temerbulatova, 2021. "A decade of Eurasian Integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian Economic Union," Working Papers 1/21, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    • Handle: RePEc:saq:wpaper:1/21
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Eurasian Economic Union; bilateral trade; preferential trade agreements; policy evaluation; mean balancing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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