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The Impact of Trade Agreements in Latin America using the Synthetic Control Method

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  • Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan

Abstract

The paper employs synthetic control method (SCM) to determine the impact of trade agreements for 64 Latin American country pairs in the period 1989-1996. The results suggest that trade agreements have markedly boosted exports in Latin America, on an average by 76.4 percentage points over ten years. However, there is variation across countries and agreements. The export gains due to trade agreements are lower than the world average comprising 104 country pairs in the period 1983-1995.

Suggested Citation

  • Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2017. "The Impact of Trade Agreements in Latin America using the Synthetic Control Method," IMF Working Papers 2017/045, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/045
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    Cited by:

    1. Bidisha Lahiri & Anurag Deb, 2022. "Impact of the Indian “demonetization” policy on its export performance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2799-2825, June.
    2. Cáceres Bustamante, Javiera & López Giral, Dorotea & Muñoz Navia, Felipe, 2022. "The Chile-Republic of Korea Free Trade Agreement: a synthetic control assessment," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    3. González-Rozada, Martín & Ruffo, Hernán, 2024. "Do trade agreements contribute to the decline in labor share? Evidence from Latin American countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    4. Ayman El Dahrawy Sánchez‐Albornoz & Jacopo Timini, 2021. "Trade agreements and Latin American trade (creation and diversion) and welfare," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 2004-2040, July.
    5. Dmitriy Aleksandrovich Izotov, 2021. "Trade Integration in the Asia-Pacific Region: Decomposition of Effects," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 1, pages 66-96.
    6. Adam Pochmara & Jan Jakub Michałek, 2023. "The impact of the accession to the EU on trade flows of the Visegrad countries. Analysis based on the synthetic control method," Working Papers 2023-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    7. Cerqua, Augusto & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Temerbulatova, Zhansaya, 2024. "A decade of Eurasian integration: An ex-post non-parametric assessment of the Eurasian economic union," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    8. International Monetary Fund, 2017. "Brazil: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2017/216, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.
    10. Alessandro Ferrari & Matteo Fiorini & Joseph Francois, Bernard Hoekman, Lisa Maria Lechner, Miriam Manchin, Filippo Santi, 2021. "EU Trade Agreements and Non-Trade Policy Objectives," RSCAS Working Papers 2021/48, European University Institute.

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