IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uwo/hcuwoc/20214.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Innis Lecture: Return on Student Loans in Canada

Author

Abstract

This paper uses new administrative data with detailed borrower information and lengthy repayment histories from the Canada Student Loans Program (CSLP) to measure rates of return on undergraduate student loans. We document substantial heterogeneity in returns based on information available at the time loans were disbursed, including province of residence, field of study, and institution of attendance. Field of study is a particularly important determinant of rates of return, explaining 22% of the variation in predicted returns across borrowers. We explore the implications of this variation for CSLP cross-subsidization across borrowers and potential risk-based loan limits. Given the variation in ex ante predicted returns across borrowers, using all available information at the time of loan disbursement, we study the implications of potential cream-skimming of high-return borrowers by private lenders.

Suggested Citation

  • Lance Lochner & Qian Liu & Martin Gervais, 2021. "Innis Lecture: Return on Student Loans in Canada," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20214, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    • Handle: RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:20214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1162&context=economicscibc
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Puelz, Robert & Snow, Arthur, 1994. "Evidence on Adverse Selection: Equilibrium Signaling and Cross-Subsidization in the Insurance Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 236-257, April.
    2. Lance Lochner & Todd Stinebrickner & Utku Suleymanoglu, 2021. "Parental Support, Savings, and Student Loan Repayment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 329-371, February.
    3. Deborah Lucas, 2010. "Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number luca07-1.
    4. Lochner, L. & Monge-Naranjo, A., 2016. "Student Loans and Repayment," Handbook of the Economics of Education,, Elsevier.
    5. Nicole M. Fortin, 2019. "Increasing earnings inequality and the gender pay gap in Canada: Prospects for convergence," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(2), pages 407-440, May.
    6. Brad Hershbein & Kevin M. Hollenbeck (ed.), 2015. "Student Loans and the Dynamics of Debt," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number sldd, November.
    7. Lucas, Deborah (ed.), 2010. "Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226496580, April.
    8. Lance Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2014. "Default and Repayment among Baccalaureate Degree Earners," Working Papers 2014-003, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    9. Deborah Lucas, 2010. "Introduction to "Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk"," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, pages 1-12, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Adam Looney & Constantine Yannelis, 2015. "A Crisis in Student Loans? How Changes in the Characteristics of Borrowers and in the Institutions They Attended Contributed to Rising Loan Defaults," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 1-89.
    11. Nicole M. Fortin, 2019. "Increasing earnings inequality and the gender pay gap in Canada: Prospects for convergence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(2), pages 407-440, May.
    12. Nadia Karamcheva & Jeffrey Perry & Constantine Yannelis, 2020. "Income-Driven Repayment Plans for Student Loans: Working Paper 2020-02," Working Papers 56337, Congressional Budget Office.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin Gervais & Qian Liu & Lance Lochner, 2023. "The Insurance Implications of Government Student Loan Repayment Schemes," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 535-540, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Natalie Cox, 2017. "Pricing, Selection, and Welfare in the Student Loan Market: Evidence from Borrower Repayment Decisions," Working Papers 2017-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    2. Catherine, Sylvain & Yannelis, Constantine, 2023. "The distributional effects of student loan forgiveness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 297-316.
    3. Holger Mueller & Constantine Yannelis, 2022. "Increasing Enrollment in Income‐Driven Student Loan Repayment Plans: Evidence from the Navient Field Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 367-402, February.
    4. Pedro Gete & Franco Zecchetto, 2018. "Distributional Implications of Government Guarantees in Mortgage Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1064-1097.
    5. Andrew G. Atkeson & Adrien d’Avernas & Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2019. "Government Guarantees and the Valuation of American Banks," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 81-145.
    6. Stefan Nagel & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2020. "Banks’ Risk Dynamics and Distance to Default," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2421-2467.
    7. Chirinko, Robert, 2023. "What went wrong? The Puerto Rican debt crisis, the “Treasury Put,” and the failure of market discipline," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. David Finkelstein & Andreas Strzodka & James Vickery, 2018. "Credit risk transfer and de facto GSE reform," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 24-3, pages 88-116.
    9. Samuel Antill & Asani Sarkar, 2018. "Is size everything?," Staff Reports 864, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Habib, Michel & Brealey, Richard & Cooper, Ian, 2018. "Valuation in the Public and Private Sectors: Tax, Risk, Debt Capacity, and the Cost of Capital," CEPR Discussion Papers 13277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Johnathan G. Conzelmann & T. Austin Lacy & Nichole D. Smith, 2019. "Another Day Another Dollar Metric? An Event History Analysis of Student Loan Repayment," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 14(4), pages 627-651, Fall.
    12. Carlos Madeira, 2022. "The double impact of deep social unrest and a pandemic: Evidence from Chile," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(S1), pages 135-171, February.
    13. Mi Luo & Simon Mongey, 2019. "Assets and Job Choice: Student Debt, Wages and Amenities," NBER Working Papers 25801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Rauh, Joshua D. & Stefanescu, Irina & Zeldes, Stephen P., 2020. "Cost saving and the freezing of corporate pension plans," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    15. Benjamin L. Collier & Andrew F. Haughwout & Howard C. Kunreuther & Erwann O. Michel‐Kerjan, 2020. "Firms’ Management of Infrequent Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1329-1359, September.
    16. Carolyn Kousky, 2014. "Managing shoreline retreat: a US perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 9-20, May.
    17. Karademir, Sencer & Laliberté, Jean-William & Staubli, Stefan, 2023. "The Multigenerational Impact of Children and Childcare Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 15894, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Luca Benzon & Olena Chyruk, 2015. "The Value and Risk of Human Capital," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 179-200, December.
    19. Ilja Boelaars & Roel Mehlkopf, 2018. "Optimal risk-sharing in pension funds when stock and labor markets are co-integrated," DNB Working Papers 595, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    20. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2013. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 38-94.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:20214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://nest.uwo.ca/chcp/research/working_papers.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.