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Distributional Implications of Government Guarantees in Mortgage Markets

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  • Pedro Gete
  • Franco Zecchetto

Abstract

We analyze the removal of the credit-risk guarantees provided by the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) in a model with agents heterogeneous in income and house price risk. We find that wealth inequality increases, driven by higher mortgage spreads and housing rents. Housing holdings become more concentrated. Foreclosures fall. The removal benefits high-income households, while hurting low- and mid-income households (renters and highly leveraged mortgagors with conforming loans). GSE reform requires compensating transfers, sufficiently high elasticity of rental supply, or linking GSE reform with the elimination of the mortgage interest deduction. Received March 11, 2016; editorial decision May 5, 2017 by Editor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Gete & Franco Zecchetto, 2018. "Distributional Implications of Government Guarantees in Mortgage Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1064-1097.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:31:y:2018:i:3:p:1064-1097.
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    3. Elenev, Vadim & Landvoigt, Tim & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2016. "Phasing out the GSEs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 111-132.
    4. Serafin J. Grundl & You Suk Kim, 2019. "The Marginal Effect of Government Mortgage Guarantees on Homeownership," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Pedro Gete & Michael Reher, 2018. "Mortgage Supply and Housing Rents," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(12), pages 4884-4911.
    6. Daniel L. Greenwald & Tim Landvoigt & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Financial Fragility with SAM?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(2), pages 651-706, April.
    7. Bowden, Roger J. & Posch, Peter N. & Ullmann, Daniel, 2018. "Income distribution in troubled times: Disadvantage and dispersion dynamics in Europe 2005–2013," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 36-40.
    8. Davis, Morris A. & Oliner, Stephen D. & Peter, Tobias J. & Pinto, Edward J., 2020. "The Impact of Federal Housing Policy on Housing Demand and Homeownership: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    9. Kim, Jiseob, 2019. "How foreclosure delays impact mortgage defaults and mortgage modifications," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 18-37.
    10. Kiana Basiri & Babak Mahmoudi & Chenggang Zhou, 2023. "Who benefits the most? Risk pooling in mortgage loan insurance: Evidence from the Canadian mortgage market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 311-337, March.
    11. Grundl, Serafin & Kim, You Suk, 2021. "The marginal effect of government mortgage guarantees on homeownership," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 75-89.
    12. Alexei Alexandrov & Thomas S. Conkling & Sergei Koulayev, 2024. "Changing the Scope of GSE Loan Guarantees: Estimating Effects on Mortgage Pricing and Availability," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 409-451, October.
    13. Alexei Tchistyi, 2018. "An Equilibrium Model of Housing and Mortgage Markets with State-Contingent Lending Contracts," 2018 Meeting Papers 244, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Yunho Cho & Shuyun May Li & Lawrence Uren, 2024. "Investment Housing Tax Concessions And Welfare: A Quantitative Study For Australia," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 781-816, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis

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