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Forecasting Beta: How well does the 'five year rule of thumb' do?

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  • N. Groenewold
  • P. Fraser

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  • N. Groenewold & P. Fraser, 1999. "Forecasting Beta: How well does the 'five year rule of thumb' do?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 99-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:99-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fisher, Lawrence & Kamin, Jules H., 1985. "Forecasting Systematic Risk: Estimates of “Raw” Beta that Take Account of the Tendency of Beta to Change and the Heteroskedasticity of Residual Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 127-149, June.
    2. Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W. & Lee, John H. H., 1995. "Beta stability and portfolio formation," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 145-146, May.
    3. Young, S. David & Berry, Michael A. & Harvey, David W. & Page, John R., 1991. "Macroeconomic Forces, Systematic Risk, and Financial Variables: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 559-564, December.
    4. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    5. Hawawini, Gabriel A. & Michel, Pierre A. & Corhay, Albert, 1985. "New evidence on beta stationarity and forecast for belgian common stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 553-560, December.
    6. Nicolaas Groenewold, 1997. "Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9&10), pages 1367-1383.
    7. R.W. Faff & R.D. Brooks, 1998. "Time‐varying Beta Risk for Australian Industry Portfolios: An Exploratory Analysis," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5‐6), pages 721-745, June.
    8. Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "Betas and Their Regression Tendencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 785-795, June.
    9. Collins, Daniel W & Ledolter, Johannes & Rayburn, Judy Dawson, 1987. "Some Further Evidence on the Stochastic Properties of Systematic Risk," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 425-448, July.
    10. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1976. "Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Parameter Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 167-184, January.
    11. McDonald, Bill, 1983. "Beta Nonstationarity and the Use of the Chen and Lee Estimator: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 1005-1009, June.
    12. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Francis, Jack Clark, 1978. "Beta as a Random Coefficient," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 101-116, March.
    13. Vasicek, Oldrich A, 1973. "A Note on Using Cross-Sectional Information in Bayesian Estimation of Security Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(5), pages 1233-1239, December.
    14. Robert Brooks & Robert Faff & Thomas Josev, 1997. "Beta stability and monthly seasonal effects: evidence from the Australian capital market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(9), pages 563-566.
    15. Black, A. & Fraser, P. & Power, D., 1992. "UK unit trust performance 1980-1989: A passive time-varying approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 1015-1033, September.
    16. Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1997. "The Pricing of Time-Varying Beta," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 345-363.
    17. Chen, Son-Nan & Lee, Cheng F., 1982. "Bayesian and mixed estimators of time varying betas," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 291-301.
    18. Alexander, Gordon J. & Chervany, Norman L., 1980. "On the Estimation and Stability of Beta," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 123-137, March.
    19. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    20. Klemkosky, Robert C & Martin, John D, 1975. "The Adjustment of Beta Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(4), pages 1123-1128, September.
    21. Bos, T & Newbold, P, 1984. "An Empirical Investigation of the Possibility of Stochastic Systematic Risk in the Market Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(1), pages 35-41, January.
    22. Nicolaas, Patricia Groenewold Fraser, 1997. "Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9‐10), pages 1367-1383, October.
    23. Blume, Marshall E, 1971. "On the Assessment of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 1-10, March.
    24. Gonedes, Nicholas J., 1973. "Evidence on the Information Content of Accounting Numbers: Accounting-based and Market-based Estimates of Systematic Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 407-443, June.
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