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Forecasting Systematic Risk: Estimates of “Raw” Beta that Take Account of the Tendency of Beta to Change and the Heteroskedasticity of Residual Returns

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  • Fisher, Lawrence
  • Kamin, Jules H.

Abstract

In the application of modern portfolio theory, the systematic risk of a security is of central importance. Beta (β), the future regression coefficient of the return of the security on the return of the market, is an index of that risk. Since the future is yet to be revealed, nonclairvoyant practitioners and researchers must rely on estimated rather than actual values of beta and the estimates must be based on data that are currently available.

Suggested Citation

  • Fisher, Lawrence & Kamin, Jules H., 1985. "Forecasting Systematic Risk: Estimates of “Raw” Beta that Take Account of the Tendency of Beta to Change and the Heteroskedasticity of Residual Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 127-149, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:20:y:1985:i:02:p:127-149_01
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    Citations

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    1. Gauri Ghai & Maria De Boyrie & Shahid Hamid & Arun Prakash, 2001. "Estimation of global systematic risk for securities listed in multiple markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 117-130.
    2. Koundouri, Phoebe & Kourogenis, Nikolaos & Pittis, Nikitas & Samartzis, Panagiotis, 2015. "Factor Models as "Explanatory UniÖers" versus "Explanatory Ideals" of Empirical Regularities of Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 122254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Magdalena Mikolajek-Gocejna, 2021. "Estimation, Instability, and Non-Stationarity of Beta Coefficients for Twenty-four Emerging Markets in 2005-2021," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 370-395.
    4. Coleman, Jane A. & Shaik, Saleem, 2009. "Time-Varying Estimation of Crop Insurance Program in Altering North Dakota Farm Economic Structure," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49516, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Laurens Swinkels & Pieter Van Der Sluis, 2006. "Return-based style analysis with time-varying exposures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6-7), pages 529-552.
    6. Antypas, Antonios & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kourogenis, Nikolaos & Pittis, Nikitas, 2020. "Estimation of conditional asset pricing models with integrated variables in the beta specification," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Dębski Wiesław & Feder-Sempach Ewa & Świderski Bartosz, 2014. "Intervalling Effect On Estimating The Beta Parameter For The Largest Companies On The WSE," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 14(2), pages 270-286, December.
    8. Panagiotis Samartzis & Nikitas Pittis & Nikolaos Kourogenis & Phoebe Koundouri, 2013. "Factor Models of Stock Returns: GARCH Errors versus Autoregressive Betas," DEOS Working Papers 1318, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    9. Phoebe Koundouri & Nikolaos Kourogenis & Nikitas Pittis & Panagiotis Samartzis, 2016. "Factor Models of Stock Returns: GARCH Errors versus Time‐Varying Betas," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 445-461, August.
    10. N. Groenewold & P. Fraser, 1999. "Forecasting Beta: How well does the 'five year rule of thumb' do?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 99-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    11. Sam Nasypbek & Scheherazade S Rehman, 2011. "Explaining the returns of active currency managers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 211-256, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Markus Ebner & Thorsten Neumann, 2008. "Time-varying factor models for equity portfolio construction," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 381-395.
    13. Buckland, Roger & Fraser, Patricia, 2002. "The scale and patterns of abnormal returns to equity investment in UK electricity distribution," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 39-62.
    14. Dębski Wiesław & Feder-Sempach Ewa & Świderski Bartosz, 2016. "Beta Stability Over Bull and Bear Market on the Warsaw Stock Exchange," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 16(1), pages 75-92, December.
    15. Shaik, Saleem, 2011. "Does accounting for inefficiency affect the time-varying short and long-run returns to scale?," IAMO Forum 2011: Will the "BRICs Decade" Continue? – Prospects for Trade and Growth 11, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO).
    16. Stefano Paleari & Renato Redondi, 2005. "Regulation Effects on Company Beta Components," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 317-346, October.

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