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Macroeconomic Forces, Systematic Risk, and Financial Variables: An Empirical Investigation

Author

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  • Young, S. David
  • Berry, Michael A.
  • Harvey, David W.
  • Page, John R.

Abstract

This paper assesses the ability of financial statement variables to forecast sensitivities to systematic risk factors generated by a multifactor, macroeconomic forces model. Forecasts of beta derived from financial variables are shown to outperform naive, random walk forecasts, although Bayesian-adjusted betas perform as well as the financial variables model.

Suggested Citation

  • Young, S. David & Berry, Michael A. & Harvey, David W. & Page, John R., 1991. "Macroeconomic Forces, Systematic Risk, and Financial Variables: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 559-564, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:26:y:1991:i:04:p:559-564_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Jin, Li & Merton, Robert C. & Bodie, Zvi, 2006. "Do a firm's equity returns reflect the risk of its pension plan?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-26, July.
    2. N. Groenewold & P. Fraser, 1999. "Forecasting Beta: How well does the 'five year rule of thumb' do?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 99-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. Chiang, Thomas C. & Chen, Xiaoyu, 2016. "Stock returns and economic fundamentals in an emerging market: An empirical investigation of domestic and global market forces," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 107-120.
    4. Wright, Peter & Kroll, Mark & Pray, Bevalee & Lado, Augustine, 1995. "Strategic orientations, competitive advantage, and business performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-151, June.
    5. Chen, Xiaoyu & Chiang, Thomas C., 2016. "Stock returns and economic forces—An empirical investigation of Chinese markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 45-65.

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