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Three-Dimensional Brownian Motion and the Golden Ratio Rule

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Abstract

Let X =(Xt)t=0 be a transient diffusion processin (0,8) with the diffusion coeffcient s> 0 and the scale function L such that Xt ?8 as t ?8 ,let It denote its running minimum for t = 0, and let ? denote the time of its ultimate minimum I8 .Setting c(i,x)=1-2L(x)/L(i) we show that the stopping time minimises E(|? - t|- ?) over all stopping times t of X (with finite mean) where the optimal boundary f* can be characterised as the minimal solution to staying strictly above the curve h(i)= L-1(L(i)/2) for i > 0. In particular, when X is the radial part of three-dimensional Brownian motion, we find that where ? =(1+v5)/2=1.61 ... is the golden ratio. The derived results are applied to problems of optimal trading in the presence of bubbles where we show that the golden ratio rule offers a rigourous optimality argument for the choice of the well known golden retracement in technical analysis of asset prices.

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  • Kristoffer Glover & Hardy Hulley & Goran Peskir, 2011. "Three-Dimensional Brownian Motion and the Golden Ratio Rule," Research Paper Series 295, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:295
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    File URL: https://www.uts.edu.au/sites/default/files/qfr-archive-03/QFR-rp295.pdf
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    1. Goldman, M Barry & Sosin, Howard B & Gatto, Mary Ann, 1979. "Path Dependent Options: "Buy at the Low, Sell at the High"," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(5), pages 1111-1127, December.
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    5. A. M. G. Cox & David Hobson & Jan Ob{l}'oj, 2007. "Pathwise inequalities for local time: Applications to Skorokhod embeddings and optimal stopping," Papers math/0702173, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2008.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pavel V. Gapeev, 2022. "Perpetual American Double Lookback Options on Drawdowns and Drawups with Floating Strikes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 749-788, June.
    2. Pavel V. Gapeev & Neofytos Rodosthenous & V. L. Raju Chinthalapati, 2019. "On the Laplace Transforms of the First Hitting Times for Drawdowns and Drawups of Diffusion-Type Processes," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Gapeev, Pavel V., 2020. "Optimal stopping problems for running minima with positive discounting rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 105849, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Pavel V. Gapeev & Peter M. Kort & Maria N. Lavrutich & Jacco J. J. Thijssen, 2022. "Optimal Double Stopping Problems for Maxima and Minima of Geometric Brownian Motions," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 789-813, June.
    5. Thomas Kruse & Philipp Strack, 2019. "An Inverse Optimal Stopping Problem for Diffusion Processes," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 44(2), pages 423-439, May.
    6. Gapeev, Pavel V. & Rodosthenous, Neofytos & Chinthalapati, V.L Raju, 2019. "On the Laplace transforms of the first hitting times for drawdowns and drawups of diffusion-type processes," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101272, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. T. De Angelis & G. Peskir, 2016. "Optimal prediction of resistance and support levels," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 465-483, November.
    8. Gapeev, Pavel V. & Li, Libo, 2022. "Perpetual American standard and lookback options with event risk and asymmetric information," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114940, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Baurdoux, Erik J. & Pedraza, José M., 2023. "Predicting the last zero before an exponential time of a spectrally negative Lévy process," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119290, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Gapeev, Pavel V. & Rodosthenous, Neofytos, 2016. "Perpetual American options in diffusion-type models with running maxima and drawdowns," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 126(7), pages 2038-2061.
    11. Gapeev, Pavel V., 2020. "Optimal stopping problems for running minima with positive discounting rates," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    12. Gündüz, Güngör & Gündüz, Yalin, 2016. "A thermodynamical view on asset pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 310-327.

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