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Predicting the last zero before an exponential time of a spectrally negative Lévy process

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  • Baurdoux, Erik J.
  • Pedraza, José M.

Abstract

Given a spectrally negative Lévy process, we predict, in an $L_1$ sense, the last passage time of the process below zero before an independent exponential time. This optimal prediction problem generalises [2], where the infinite-horizon problem is solved. Using a similar argument as that in [24], we show that this optimal prediction problem is equivalent to solving an optimal prediction problem in a finite-horizon setting. Surprisingly (unlike the infinite-horizon problem), an optimal stopping time is based on a curve that is killed at the moment the mean of the exponential time is reached. That is, an optimal stopping time is the first time the process crosses above a non-negative, continuous, and non-increasing curve depending on time. This curve and the value function are characterised as a solution of a system of nonlinear integral equations which can be understood as a generalisation of the free boundary equations (see e.g. [21, Chapter IV.14.1]) in the presence of jumps. As an example, we numerically calculate this curve in the Brownian motion case and for a compound Poisson process with exponential-sized jumps perturbed by a Brownian motion.

Suggested Citation

  • Baurdoux, Erik J. & Pedraza, José M., 2023. "Predicting the last zero before an exponential time of a spectrally negative Lévy process," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119290, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:119290
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Damien Lamberton & Mohammed Mikou, 2008. "The critical price for the American put in an exponential Lévy model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 561-581, October.
    2. Damien Lamberton & Mohammed Mikou, 2013. "Exercise boundary of the American put near maturity in an exponential Lévy model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 355-394, April.
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    5. Kristoffer Glover & Hardy Hulley, 2014. "Optimal prediction of the last-passage time of a transient diffusion," Published Paper Series 2014-5, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Kristoffer Glover & Hardy Hulley & Goran Peskir, 2011. "Three-Dimensional Brownian Motion and the Golden Ratio Rule," Research Paper Series 295, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lévy processes; optimal prediction; optimal stopping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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