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Asset Price Bubbles: An Option-based Indicator

Author

Listed:
  • Petteri Piiroinen
  • Lassi Roininen
  • Tobias Schoden
  • Martin Simon

Abstract

We construct a statistical indicator for the detection of short-term asset price bubbles based on the information content of bid and ask market quotes for plain vanilla put and call options. Our construction makes use of the martingale theory of asset price bubbles and the fact that such scenarios where the price for an asset exceeds its fundamental value can in principle be detected by analysis of the asymptotic behavior of the implied volatility surface. For extrapolating this implied volatility, we choose the SABR model, mainly because of its decent fit to real option market quotes for a broad range of maturities and its ease of calibration. As main theoretical result, we show that under lognormal SABR dynamics, we can compute a simple yet powerful closed-form martingale defect indicator by solving an ill-posed inverse calibration problem. In order to cope with the ill-posedness and to quantify the uncertainty which is inherent to such an indicator, we adopt a Bayesian statistical parameter estimation perspective. We probe the resulting posterior densities with a combination of optimization and adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, thus providing a full-blown uncertainty estimation of all the underlying parameters and the martingale defect indicator. Finally, we provide real-market tests of the proposed option-based indicator with focus on tech stocks due to increasing concerns about a tech bubble 2.0.

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  • Petteri Piiroinen & Lassi Roininen & Tobias Schoden & Martin Simon, 2018. "Asset Price Bubbles: An Option-based Indicator," Papers 1805.07403, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1805.07403
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Biagini & Lukas Gonon & Andrea Mazzon & Thilo Meyer-Brandis, 2022. "Detecting asset price bubbles using deep learning," Papers 2210.01726, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    2. Petteri Piiroinen & Lassi Roininen & Martin Simon, 2019. "Brexit Risk Implied by the SABR Martingale Defect in the EUR-GBP Smile," Papers 1912.05773, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2020.
    3. Pedro L. P. Chaim & Márcio P. Laurini, 2019. "Foreign Exchange Expectation Errors and Filtration Enlargements," Stats, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Philip Stahl & Jérôme Blauth, 2024. "Martingale defects in the volatility surface and bubble conditions in the underlying," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 85-111, April.

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