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Approximating the Numeraire Portfolio by Naive Diversification

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Abstract

Estimation theory has shown, due to the limited estimation window available for real asset data, the sample based Markowitz mean-variance approach produces unreliable weights which fluctuate substantially over time. This paper proposes an alternate approach to portfolio optimization, being the use of naive diversification to approximate the numeraire portfolio. The numeraire portfolio is the strictly positive portfolio that, when used as benchmark, makes all benchmarked nonnegative portfolios either mean decreasing or trendless. Furthermore, it maximizes expected logarithmic utility and outperforms any other strictly positive portfolio in the long run. The paper proves for a well-securitized market that the naive equal value weighted portfolio converges to the numeraire portfolio when the number of constituents tends to infinity. This result is model independent and, therefore, very robust.The systematic construction of diversified stock indices by naive diversification from real data is demonstrated. Even when taking transaction costs into account, these indices significantly outperform the corresponding market capitalization weighted indices in the long run, indicating empirically their asymptotic proximity to the numeraire portfolio. Empirical evidence is presented that the Sharpe ratios of equi-weighted indices surpass significantly those of corresponding market capitalization weighted indices. This empirical stylized fact applies also to the market portfolio of equity markets of countries, which questions the applicability of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model. Finally, in time of financial crisis, a large equi-weighted fund carrying the investments of the major pension funds and insurance companies would provide important liquidity. It would not only dampen the extremes of a crisis but would also moderate the excesses of any asset price bubble.

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  • Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2010. "Approximating the Numeraire Portfolio by Naive Diversification," Research Paper Series 281, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:281
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    7. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2009. "Simulation of Diversified Portfolios in a Continuous Financial Market," Research Paper Series 264, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2017. "Market Efficiency and Growth Optimal Portfolio," Papers 1706.06832, arXiv.org.
    2. Jan Baldeaux & Eckhard Platen, 2015. "Credit Derivative Evaluation and CVA Under the Benchmark Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 22(3), pages 305-331, September.
    3. Dietmar P.J. Leisen & Eckhard Platen, 2017. "Investing for the Long Run," Research Paper Series 381, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Li, Helong & Huang, Qin & Wu, Baiyi, 2021. "Improving the naive diversification: An enhanced indexation approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    5. Soumik Pal & Ting-Kam Leonard Wong, 2013. "Energy, entropy, and arbitrage," Papers 1308.5376, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    6. Ke Du & Eckhard Platen, 2011. "Three-Benchmarked Risk Minimization for Jump Diffusion Markets," Research Paper Series 296, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2009. "Simulation of Diversified Portfolios in a Continuous Financial Market," Research Paper Series 264, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. Eckhard Platen & David Taylor, 2016. "Loading Pricing of Catastrophe Bonds and Other Long-Dated, Insurance-Type Contracts," Papers 1610.09875, arXiv.org.
    9. Ke Du & Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "Modeling of Oil Prices," Research Paper Series 321, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    10. Baldeaux Jan & Ignatieva Katja & Platen Eckhard, 2014. "A tractable model for indices approximating the growth optimal portfolio," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-21, February.
    11. Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 23, July-Dece.
    12. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2, July-Dece.
    13. Jan Baldeaux & Fung & Katja Ignatieva & Eckhard Platen, 2015. "A Hybrid Model for Pricing and Hedging of Long-dated Bonds," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 366-398, September.
    14. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2013. "Real World Pricing of Long Term Cash-Linked Annuities and Equity-Linked Annuities with Cash-Linked Guarantees," Research Paper Series 338, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    15. Ignatieva, Katja & Platen, Eckhard, 2012. "Estimating the diffusion coefficient function for a diversified world stock index," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1333-1349.
    16. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "The Affine Nature of Aggregate Wealth Dynamics," Research Paper Series 322, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    17. Baldeaux, Jan & Grasselli, Martino & Platen, Eckhard, 2015. "Pricing currency derivatives under the benchmark approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 34-48.
    18. Ralph Rudd & Thomas A. McWalter & Joerg Kienitz & Eckhard Platen, 2018. "Quantization Under the Real-world Measure: Fast and Accurate Valuation of Long-dated Contracts," Papers 1801.07044, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    19. Kevin Fergusson & Eckhard Platen, 2017. "Less-Expensive Valuation of Long Term Annuities Linked to Mortality, Cash and Equity," Papers 1711.02808, arXiv.org.
    20. Steven Campbell & Qien Song & Ting-Kam Leonard Wong, 2024. "Macroscopic properties of equity markets: stylized facts and portfolio performance," Papers 2409.10859, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    21. Alexander Vervuurt, 2015. "Topics in Stochastic Portfolio Theory," Papers 1504.02988, arXiv.org.
    22. Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4-2013, January-A.
    23. Kevin John Fergusson, 2018. "Less-Expensive Pricing and Hedging of Extreme-Maturity Interest Rate Derivatives and Equity Index Options Under the Real-World Measure," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2018, January-A.
    24. K. Fergusson, 2017. "Explicit Formulae For Parameters Of Stochastic Models Of A Discounted Equity Index Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation With Applications," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(02), pages 1-31, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Numeraire portfolio; growth optimal portfolio; Kelly portfolio; naive diversification; equi-weighted index; market capitalization weighted index; liquidity; Sharpe ratio; intertemporal capital asset pricing model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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