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A Benchmark Approach to Investing and Pricing

In: THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE

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  • Eckhard Platen

Abstract

This paper introduces a general market modeling framework, the benchmark approach, which assumes the existence of the numéraire portfolio. This is the strictly positive portfolio that when used as benchmark makes all benchmarked non-negative portfolios supermartingales, that is intuitively speaking downward trending or trendless. It can be shown to equal the Kelly portfolio, which maximizes expected logarithmic utility. In several ways, the Kelly or numéraire portfolio is the “best” performing portfolio and cannot be outperformed systematically by any other non-negative portfolio. Its use in pricing as numéraire leads directly to the real world pricing formula, which employs the real world probability when calculating conditional expectations. In a large regular financial market, the Kelly portfolio is shown to be approximated by well-diversified portfolios.

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  • Eckhard Platen, 2011. "A Benchmark Approach to Investing and Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 28, pages 409-426, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789814293501_0028
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    1. Dirk Becherer, 2001. "The numeraire portfolio for unbounded semimartingales," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 327-341.
    2. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
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    7. Harry M. Markowitz, 2011. "Investment for the Long Run: New Evidence for an Old Rule," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 35, pages 495-508, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Eckhard Platen, 2006. "A Benchmark Approach To Finance," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 131-151, January.
    9. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
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    11. Eckhard Platen, 2004. "A Benchmark Framework for Risk Management," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Jiro Akahori & Shigeyoshi Ogawa & Shinzo Watanabe (ed.), Stochastic Processes And Applications To Mathematical Finance, chapter 15, pages 305-335, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Ioannis Karatzas & Constantinos Kardaras, 2007. "The numéraire portfolio in semimartingale financial models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 447-493, October.
    14. Eckhard Platen, 2004. "Diversified Portfolios with Jumps in a Benchmark Framework," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, March.
    15. Constantinos Kardaras & Eckhard Platen, 2008. "Minimizing the Expected Market Time to Reach a Certain Wealth Level," Research Paper Series 230, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. Constantinides, George M, 1992. "A Theory of the Nominal Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 531-552.
    17. Long, John Jr., 1990. "The numeraire portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 29-69, July.
    18. Eckhard Platen, 2001. "Arbitrage in Continuous Complete Markets," Research Paper Series 72, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    19. Eckhard Platen, 2009. "Real World Pricing of Long Term Contracts," Research Paper Series 262, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    20. Roll, Richard, 1973. "Evidence on the "Growth-Optimum" Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(3), pages 551-566, June.
    21. Hakansson, Nils H., 1971. "Capital Growth and the Mean-Variance Approach to Portfolio Selection," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 517-557, January.
    22. Robert Fernholz & Ioannis Karatzas, 2005. "Relative arbitrage in volatility-stabilized markets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 149-177, November.
    23. Constantinos Kardaras & Eckhard Platen, 2008. "On Financial Markets where only Buy-And-Hold Trading is Possible," Research Paper Series 213, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2017. "Market Efficiency and Growth Optimal Portfolio," Papers 1706.06832, arXiv.org.
    2. Yaroslav Melnyk & Frank Thomas Seifried, 2018. "Small†cost asymptotics for long†term growth rates in incomplete markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 668-711, April.
    3. Claudio Fontana & Wolfgang J. Runggaldier, 2012. "Diffusion-based models for financial markets without martingale measures," Papers 1209.4449, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.
    4. Ke Du & Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "Modeling of Oil Prices," Research Paper Series 321, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Gabriel Frahm, 2016. "Pricing And Valuation Under The Real-World Measure," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(01), pages 1-39, February.
    6. Gabriel Frahm, 2013. "Pricing and Valuation under the Real-World Measure," Papers 1304.3824, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    7. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2, July-Dece.
    8. Mathias Barkhagen & Jörgen Blomvall & Eckhard Platen, 2016. "Recovering the real-world density and liquidity premia from option data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 1147-1164, July.
    9. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2013, January-A.
    10. Claudio Fontana, 2013. "Weak and strong no-arbitrage conditions for continuous financial markets," Papers 1302.7192, arXiv.org, revised May 2014.
    11. David Feldman & Xin Xu, 2018. "Equilibrium-based volatility models of the market portfolio rate of return (peacock tails or stotting gazelles)," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 493-518, March.
    12. Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 23, July-Dece.
    13. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "The Affine Nature of Aggregate Wealth Dynamics," Research Paper Series 322, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    14. Claudio Fontana, 2015. "Weak And Strong No-Arbitrage Conditions For Continuous Financial Markets," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(01), pages 1-34.
    15. Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4-2013, January-A.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kelly Criterion; Dynamic Investment Analysis; Capital Growth Theory; Sports Betting; Hedge Fund Strategies; Speculative Investing; Fortune 's Formula;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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