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Modeling of Oil Prices

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Abstract

The paper derives a parsimonious two-component affine diffusion model with one driving Brownian motion to capture the dynamics of oil prices. It can be observed that the oil price behaves in some sense similarly to the US dollar. However, there are also clear differences. To identify these the paper studies the empirical features of an extremely well diversified world stock index, which is a proxy of the numeraire portfolio, in the denomination of the oil price. Using a diversified index in oil price denomination allows us to disentangle the factors driving the oil price. The paper reveals that the volatility of the numeraire portfolio denominated in crude oil, increases at major oil price upward moves. Furthermore, the log-returns of the index in oil price denomination appear to follow a Student-t distribution. These and other stylized empirical properties lead to the proposed tractable diffusion model, which has the normalized numeraire portfolio and market activity as components. An almost exact simulation technique is described, which illustrates the characteristics of the proposed model and confirms that it matches well the observed stylized empirical facts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ke Du & Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "Modeling of Oil Prices," Research Paper Series 321, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:321
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2007. "Empirical Evidence on Student-t Log-Returns of Diversified World Stock Indices," Research Paper Series 194, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    2. Eckhard Platen, 2011. "A Benchmark Approach to Investing and Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 28, pages 409-426, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Eckhard Platen, 2006. "A Benchmark Approach To Finance," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 131-151, January.
    4. Alfonsi Aurélien, 2005. "On the discretization schemes for the CIR (and Bessel squared) processes," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 355-384, December.
    5. Long, John Jr., 1990. "The numeraire portfolio," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 29-69, July.
    6. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "Approximating the numéraire portfolio by naive diversification," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 34-50, February.
    7. Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2012. "The Affine Nature of Aggregate Wealth Dynamics," Research Paper Series 322, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 23, July-Dece.
    2. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2, July-Dece.
    3. Ke Du, 2013. "Commodity Derivative Pricing Under the Benchmark Approach," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2013, January-A.
    4. Renata Rendek, 2013. "Modeling Diversified Equity Indices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4-2013, January-A.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodities; oil price; numeraire portfolio; market activity; square root processes; benchmark approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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