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The trinity of wage setting in EMU: A policy proposal

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  • Gächter, Martin
  • Ramskogler, Paul
  • Riedl, Aleksandra

Abstract

Diverging labor cost developments are often considered to be one of the most important factors that led to large current account imbalances in the euro area (EA) in the run-up to the global financial crisis. It has also been shown that wage growth differentials have significantly lowered the co-movement of EA countries’ business cycles – the most widely used meta-criterion for optimum currency areas. Against this background, this paper develops a wage-setting benchmark that aims to keep the economy in internal equilibrium and to maintain price stability, while it also exhibits the capacity to correct for external imbalances. The proposed wage benchmark is very simple and may serve as an anchor for the macroeconomic dialogue in Economic and Monetary Union. In order to demonstrate the potentially beneficial effects of such a wage benchmark we present some simulations showing how current account balances and labor costs would have developed across EA countries if the rule had served as a benchmark already in the run up to the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gächter, Martin & Ramskogler, Paul & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2018. "The trinity of wage setting in EMU: A policy proposal," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 284-304.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:40:y:2018:i:2:p:284-304
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.01.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Beer & Christian Alexander Belabed & Andreas Breitenfellner & Christian Ragacs & Beat Weber, 2017. "EU integration and its impact on Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/2017, pages 1-38.
    2. Martin Gächter & Alexander Gruber & Aleksandra Riedl, 2017. "Wage Divergence, Business Cycle Co-Movement and the Currency Union Effect," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(6), pages 1322-1342, November.
    3. Lehner, Lukas & Ramskogler, Paul & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2022. "Begging thy coworker – Labor market dualization and the slow-down of wage growth in Europe," INET Oxford Working Papers 2022-04, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    4. Doménech, Rafael & García, Juan Ramón & Ulloa, Camilo, 2018. "The effects of wage flexibility on activity and employment in Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1200-1220.
    5. Konopczak, Karolina, 2019. "Modelling labour adjustments over the business cycle: evidence from non-linear ARDL model," MF Working Papers 35, Ministry of Finance in Poland.
    6. Christian Beer & Christian Alexander Belabed & Andreas Breitenfellner & Christian Ragacs & Beat Weber, 2017. "Österreich und die europäische Integration," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 86-126.
    7. Konopczak, Karolina, 2021. "Modelling labour adjustments over the business cycle using asymmetric cointegration," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    8. Camarero, Mariam & D’Adamo, Gaetano & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2021. "Differences in wage determination in the Eurozone: A challenge to the resilience of the common currency," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 183-199.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wage bargaining; Currency union; Golden Rule; Productivity; Nominal unit labor costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements

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