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Revenue forecasting in the mining industries: A data-driven approach

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  • Benjamin Jones

Abstract

Robust forecasting of mining sector revenues is key to effective budgeting (and broader fiscal management) in many resource-rich countries. However, this is challenging in practice, given commodity market volatility, the extended lags (and often opaque processes) between resource discoveries and fiscal yields, and the heterogeneity of taxable entities within the sector. Such issues are exacerbated by capacity deficits: quantitative sector assessment frameworks are seldom employed or maintained by revenue authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Jones, 2020. "Revenue forecasting in the mining industries: A data-driven approach," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-22, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2020-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    2. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
    3. Avellan, Leopoldo & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2015. "Fiscal procyclicality and output forecast errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 193-204.
    4. Markus Bruckner & Mr. Rabah Arezki, 2010. "International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt," IMF Working Papers 2010/053, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Robin Boadway & Michael Keen, 2009. "Theoretical Perspectives On Resource Tax Design," Working Paper 1206, Economics Department, Queen's University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dante A. Urbina & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2023. "Evolution of the effects of mineral commodity prices on fiscal fluctuations: empirical evidence from TVP-VAR-SV models for Peru," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(1), pages 153-184, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Corporate income tax; Extractive industries; Mining taxation; Minerals; Mining; Revenue forecasting; Royalties;
    All these keywords.

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