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The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Indonesia’s Exports to the USA: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Procedure

Author

Listed:
  • Arief Bustaman

    (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)

  • Kankesu Jayanthakumaran

    (Discipline of Economics, University of Wollongong)

Abstract

This paper investigates the long-run and short-run impacts of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia’s exports of priority commodities to the United States of America over the monthly period 1997-2005. Estimates of cointegration relations are obtained using ARDL bounds testing procedure. Estimates of the short-run dynamics are obtained using an error-correction model. The results show significant positive and negative coefficients among the range of commodities. However, in the long-run, majority of commodities tend to support the traditional view that higher exchange rate of volatility leads to higher cost and to less foreign trade. The net effect of exchange rate uncertainty on production and exports depends on the degree of relative risk aversion of the exporter of various commodities. This ultimately influences the reallocation of resources by participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Arief Bustaman & Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, 2006. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Indonesia’s Exports to the USA: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Procedure," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200610, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2006.
    • Handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:200610
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Osama M. Badr & Ahmed F. El-khadrawi, 2018. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: An Empirical Investigation from the Egyptian Economy," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 5(4), pages 140-149, July.
    2. repec:idn:journl:v:20:y:2017:i:1b:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mashilana Ngondo & Hlalefang Khobai, 2018. "The impact of exchange rate on exports in South Africa," Working Papers 1809, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Mar 2018.
    4. Verheyen, Florian, 2012. "Bilateral exports from euro zone countries to the US — Does exchange rate variability play a role?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 97-108.
    5. Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile & Geoff Pugh, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 321-350, April.
    6. repec:got:cegedp:121 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate volatility; exports; ARDL bounds testing; error-correction model; Indonesia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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