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Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis

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  • Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile
  • Geoff Pugh

Abstract

Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreement, the trade effect of exchange rate variability (ERV) has been contentious. However, neither the theoretical nor the empirical literature provides unambiguous guidance on the trade effect of ERV. This article applies meta-regression analysis to the empirical literature and finds evidence of: modest publication bias; a range of authentic empirical effects that are highly conditional, even with respect to sign and, correspondingly, pronounced heterogeneity in the reported results. Investigation of this heterogeneity reveals that the results are significantly influenced both by authors' modelling strategies and by the contexts of their investigations. In particular, researchers are most likely to find an adverse trade effect by investigating low-frequency real exchange variability and trade between less developed economies, hence, beyond the reach of hedging opportunities (as suggested by previous studies). In general, our most important advice for policy makers is that economic research does not reveal a single representative effect size.

Suggested Citation

  • Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile & Geoff Pugh, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 321-350, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:22:y:2013:i:3:p:321-350
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2011.565421
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hong, Sanghyun, 2019. "Meta-analysis and publication bias: How well does the FAT-PET-PEESE procedure work? A replication study of Alinaghi & Reed (Research Synthesis Methods, 2018)," International Journal for Re-Views in Empirical Economics (IREE), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3(2019-4), pages 1-22.
    3. Pami Dua & Ritu Suri, 2023. "India’s Bilateral Export Growth and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Panel GMM Approach," Springer Books, in: Pami Dua (ed.), Macroeconometric Methods, chapter 0, pages 123-148, Springer.
    4. Wesley, J.D. & Shen, Xuan & Li, Sheng & Wilson, Norbert L.W., 2012. "Agricultural Trade Bias in Exchange Rate Volatility Effect Estimation: An Application of Meta-Regression Analysis," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124870, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. repec:wly:econjl:v::y:2017:i:605:p:f236-f265 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Abdorreza Soleymani & Soo Y. Chua, 2014. "Effect of exchange rate volatility on industry trade flows between Malaysia and China," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 626-655, August.
    7. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Masatci, Kaan & Pılbeam, Keith, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 133-140.
    8. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Anthony Enisan Akinlo & Olufemi Gbenga Onatunji, 2021. "Exchange Rate Volatility And Foreign Direct Investment In Selected West African Countries," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 15(1), pages 77-88.
    10. Ryan Yeung & Phuong Nguyen-Hoang, 2016. "Endogenous peer effects: Fact or fiction?," The Journal of Educational Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(1), pages 37-49, January.
    11. Choudhry, Taufiq & Hassan, Syed S., 2015. "Exchange rate volatility and UK imports from developing countries: The effect of the global financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 89-101.
    12. John P. A. Ioannidis & T. D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2017. "The Power of Bias in Economics Research," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 236-265, October.
    13. Bisharat Hussain Chang & Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput & Niaz Ahmed Bhutto, 2019. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the US Exports: A New Evidence From Multiple Threshold Nonlinear ARDL Model," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-26, June.

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