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Exchange rate depreciation and exports: The case of Singapore revisited

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  • WenShwo Fang

    (Feng Chia University)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (University of Connecticut and University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

Abstract

This paper revisits the weak relationship between exchange rate depreciation and exports for Singapore, using a bivariate GARCH-M model that simultaneously estimates time-varying risk. The evidence shows that depreciation does not significantly improve exports, but that exchange rate risk significantly impedes exports. In sum, Singaporean policy makers can better promote export growth by stabilizing the exchange rate rather than generating its depreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "Exchange rate depreciation and exports: The case of Singapore revisited," Working papers 2004-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2004-45
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically? Asian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 215-239, March.
    2. Abdallah, Ali, 2022. "Dépréciation réelle de la monnaie et croissance économique [Can real currency depreciation lead growth?]," MPRA Paper 113183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Shaista Alam & Qazi Masood Ahmed & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2018. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Pakistan’s Bilateral Exports to Major Recipients," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(2), pages 328-341, April.
    4. Ranajoy Bhattacharyya & Bipradas Rit, 2018. "On the Relationship between the Nominal Exchange Rate and Export Demand in India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 7(2), pages 260-282, December.
    5. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2010. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Thailand's Exports to the United States and Japan under the Recent Float," MPRA Paper 45030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Thomas Chuffart & Cyril Dell'Eva, 2020. "The role of carry trades on the effectiveness of Japan's quantitative easing," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 161, pages 30-40.
    7. Longjiang Chen, 2011. "The effect of China's RMB exchange rate movement on its agricultural export: A case study of export to Japan," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 26-41, January.
    8. Wang, Jiao & Ji, Andy G., 2006. "Exchange rate sensitivity of China's bilateral trade flows," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2006, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    9. Arief Bustaman & Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, 2006. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Indonesia’s Exports to the USA: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Procedure," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200610, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2006.
    10. Brent Hudson & Richard Gerlach, 2008. "A Bayesian approach to relaxing parameter restrictions in multivariate GARCH models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 17(3), pages 606-627, November.
    11. Viviana A. Alfonso-Corredor & Enrique Montes-Uribe & María A. Prieto-Sánchez & Héctor M. Zárate-Solano, 2019. "Determinantes y evolución de los precios y cantidades de las principales exportaciones agrícolas de Colombia diferentes al café," Borradores de Economia 1100, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Pasrun Adam & Pasrun Adam & Rosnawintang Rosnawintang & Ambo Wonua Nusantara & Abd Aziz Muthalib, 2017. "A Model of the Dynamic of the Relationship between Exchange Rate and Indonesia's Export," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 255-261.
    13. Zhang, Teng & Ouyang, Puman, 2018. "Is RMB appreciation a nightmare for the Chinese firms? An analysis on firm profitability and exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 27-43.
    14. Mukesh Kumar & Azeema Begam & Nargis, 2020. "The Impact of Currency Depreciation on Exports of SAARC Countries," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(1), pages 16-29, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    depreciation; exchange rate risk; exports; bivariate GARCH-M model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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