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The impact of exchange rate on exports in South Africa

Author

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  • Ngondo, Mashilana
  • Khobai, Hlalefang

Abstract

The primary objective of this study is to assess the impact of exchange rate on exports in South Africa between the periods 1994 to 2016 and to establish whether a statistically significant relationship exists between exports and exchange rate. The study incorporated real interest rate, investments and inflation as control variables. By applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, this study empirically investigates the impact of real exchange rate on exports in South Africa. In testing for the unit root properties of the time series data, the variables were subjected to the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Philips Perron (PP) unit root tests. The results obtained reveal that exchange rate has a significant negative relationship with exports in South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Ngondo, Mashilana & Khobai, Hlalefang, 2018. "The impact of exchange rate on exports in South Africa," MPRA Paper 85079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:85079
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Brooks,Chris, 2008. "RATS Handbook to Accompany Introductory Econometrics for Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521896955, November.
    3. Lira SEKANTSI, 2011. "The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on South African Exports to the United States (U.S.): A Bounds Test Approach," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 8, pages 119-139, December.
    4. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. G De Vita & A Abbott, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and US Exports: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 9(1), pages 69-78, March.
    7. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Prudence S. Moyo & Nehrunaman Pillay, 2015. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports in South Africa," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-14.
    8. Nergiz Dincer & Magda Kandil, 2011. "The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports: A sectoral analysis for Turkey," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 809-837, June.
    9. Joseph Dery Nyeadi & Oswald Atiga & Charles Amoyea Atogenzoya, 2014. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Movement on Export: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 41-48, July.
    10. Poonyth, Daneswar & van Zyl, Johan, 2000. "The impact of real exchange rate changes on South African agricultural exports: An error correction model approach," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 39(4), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Arief Bustaman & Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, 2006. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Indonesia’s Exports to the USA: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Procedure," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200610, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2006.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vincent Muziwakhile Mbongeleni Moloi, 2023. "The Impact Of Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, And International Trade In Selected Southern African Development Community (Sadc) Countries: An Ardl Approach," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 11(3-4), pages 144-158.
    2. Muhammed Adamu Obomeghie & David Umoru, 2024. "Devaluation, Goods Price Variation, And Gdp Growth," Journal of Academic Research in Economics, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Accounting and Financial Management Constanta, vol. 16(2 (July)), pages 273-311.
    3. Ebenezer Olamide & Kanayo Ogujiuba & Andrew Maredza, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Panel Data Approach for SADC," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-19, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; exports; Autoregressive Distribution Lag Model (ARDL); South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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