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Positional WAR in the National Football League

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Abstract

We estimate positional "wins above replacement" (WAR) in the National Football League (NFL). Positional WAR measures the value of players in the NFL, by position, in terms of generating wins. WAR is a commonly used metric to evaluate individual players in professional baseball and basketball in the United States, but to the best of our knowledge this is the first study to construct WAR measures for American football. A key challenge in constructing these measures is that individual statistics for many football players are not as well-developed as in baseball and basketball. Related to this point, the productivity of individual football players, perhaps more than players in any other major sport, is highly dependent on context. We circumvent issues related to measuring productivity for individual players by constructing WAR measures at the position rather than individual level. The identifying variation that we leverage in our study is generated by arguably exogenous player injuries and suspensions. Using data from three seasons and all 32 NFL teams, we show that the most valuable positions in the NFL are quarterback, wide receiver, tight end/fullback and offensive tackle. Perhaps our most surprising finding is that positional WAR for all positions on the defensive side of the football is zero

Suggested Citation

  • Cory Koedel & Andrew Hughes & Joshua A. Price, 2014. "Positional WAR in the National Football League," Working Papers 1410, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
  • Handle: RePEc:umc:wpaper:1410
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott E. Atkinson & Linda R. Stanley & John Tschirhart, 1988. "Revenue Sharing as an Incentive in an Agency Problem: An example from the National Football League," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 19(1), pages 27-43, Spring.
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    3. Blass, Asher A, 1992. "Does the Baseball Labor Market Contradict the Human Capital Model of Investment?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 261-268, May.
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    5. John D. Burger & Stephen J. K. Walters, 2003. "Market Size, Pay, and Performance," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 4(2), pages 108-125, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Positional Wins Above Replacement; Positional WAR; WAR in American football; positional value in American football;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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