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The Existence and Persistence of a Winner’s Curse: New Evidence from the (Baseball) Field

Author

Listed:
  • John D. Burger

    (Department of Economics, Loyola College in Maryland)

  • Stephen J.K. Walters

    (Department of Economics, Loyola College in Maryland)

Abstract

This study takes advantage of recent developments in the measurement and valuation of individual output in the baseball labor market to (i) reassess prior evidence that this market is afflicted by the winner’s curse phenomenon and (ii) test whether bidders learn to avoid this curse over time. Though we find no evidence of negative average returns on player contracts for the earliest cohort of baseball free agents, we conclude that teams in that era failed to efficiently discount their bids in accord with available information, especially about risk. What is more, evidence from a larger sample of players signed in the late 1990s shows that teams have continued to overvalue inconsistent free agents and failed to limit their bids to conform to players’ lower values in small markets. This is consistent with experimental evidence that finds bounded-rational behavior when bidders are faced with complex valuation problems involving multiple elements.

Suggested Citation

  • John D. Burger & Stephen J.K. Walters, 2006. "The Existence and Persistence of a Winner’s Curse: New Evidence from the (Baseball) Field," Working Papers 0625, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    • Handle: RePEc:spe:wpaper:0625
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rodney Fort & Young Hoon Lee & Taeyeon Oh, 2019. "Quantile Insights on Market Structure and Worker Salaries: The Case of Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(8), pages 1066-1087, December.
    2. Anthony C. Krautmann, 2013. "What Is Right With Scully Estimates of a Player’s Marginal Revenue Product," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 97-105, February.
    3. Maria Fotaki & Apostolos Kourtis & Raphael Markellos, 2023. "Human resources turnover as an asset acquisition and divestiture process: Evidence from the U.K. football industry," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2696-2711, July.
    4. Anthony C. Krautmann & James Ciecka, 2009. "The Postseason Value of an Elite Player to a Contending Team," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(2), pages 168-179, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    market efficiency; bounded rationality; overbidding;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments

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