IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/metcap/v20y2018i2d10.1007_s11009-017-9583-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial Expectile Predictions for Elliptical Random Fields

Author

Listed:
  • V. Maume-Deschamps

    (Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1)

  • D. Rullière

    (Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1)

  • A. Usseglio-Carleve

    (Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1)

Abstract

In this work, we consider an elliptical random field. We propose some spatial expectile predictions at one site given observations of the field at some other locations. To this aim, we first give exact expressions for conditional expectiles, and discuss problems that occur for computing these values. A first affine expectile regression predictor is detailed, an explicit iterative algorithm is obtained, and its distribution is given. Direct simple expressions are derived for some particular elliptical random fields. The performance of this expectile regression is shown to be very poor for extremal expectile levels, so that a second predictor is proposed. We prove that this new extremal prediction is asymptotically equivalent to the true conditional expectile. We also provide some numerical illustrations, and conclude that Expectile Regression may perform poorly when one leaves the Gaussian random field setting.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Maume-Deschamps & D. Rullière & A. Usseglio-Carleve, 2018. "Spatial Expectile Predictions for Elliptical Random Fields," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 643-671, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:20:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11009-017-9583-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-017-9583-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11009-017-9583-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11009-017-9583-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hunter D.R. & Lange K., 2004. "A Tutorial on MM Algorithms," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 58, pages 30-37, February.
    2. Kano, Y., 1994. "Consistency Property of Elliptic Probability Density Functions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 139-147, October.
    3. Kotz,Samuel & Nadarajah,Saralees, 2004. "Multivariate T-Distributions and Their Applications," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521826549, September.
    4. Bellini, Fabio & Klar, Bernhard & Müller, Alfred & Rosazza Gianin, Emanuela, 2014. "Generalized quantiles as risk measures," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 41-48.
    5. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    6. Kozubowski, Tomasz J. & Podgórski, Krzysztof & Rychlik, Igor, 2013. "Multivariate generalized Laplace distribution and related random fields," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 59-72.
    7. Cambanis, Stamatis & Huang, Steel & Simons, Gordon, 1981. "On the theory of elliptically contoured distributions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 368-385, September.
    8. Jones, M. C., 1994. "Expectiles and M-quantiles are quantiles," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 149-153, May.
    9. Gómez, Héctor W. & Quintana, Fernando A. & Torres, Francisco J., 2007. "A new family of slash-distributions with elliptical contours," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(7), pages 717-725, April.
    10. Sobotka, Fabian & Kneib, Thomas, 2012. "Geoadditive expectile regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 755-767.
    11. Newey, Whitney K & Powell, James L, 1987. "Asymmetric Least Squares Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 819-847, July.
    12. Maume-Deschamps, V. & Rullière, D. & Usseglio-Carleve, A., 2017. "Quantile predictions for elliptical random fields," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1-17.
    13. James W. Taylor, 2008. "Estimating Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Using Expectiles," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 231-252, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maume-Deschamps, V. & Rullière, D. & Usseglio-Carleve, A., 2017. "Quantile predictions for elliptical random fields," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Abdelaati Daouia & Simone A. Padoan & Gilles Stupfler, 2024. "Extreme expectile estimation for short-tailed data," Post-Print hal-04672516, HAL.
    3. Daouia, Abdelaati & Padoan, Simone A. & Stupfler, Gilles, 2023. "Extreme expectile estimation for short-tailed data, with an application to market risk assessment," TSE Working Papers 23-1414, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised May 2024.
    4. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-047 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Daouia, Abdelaati & Girard, Stéphane & Stupfler, Gilles, 2021. "ExpectHill estimation, extreme risk and heavy tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 97-117.
    6. Daouia, Abdelaati & Stupfler, Gilles & Usseglio-Carleve, Antoine, 2023. "An expectile computation cookbook," TSE Working Papers 23-1458, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    7. C. Adam & I. Gijbels, 2022. "Local polynomial expectile regression," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 74(2), pages 341-378, April.
    8. Girard, Stéphane & Stupfler, Gilles & Usseglio-Carleve, Antoine, 2022. "Functional estimation of extreme conditional expectiles," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 131-158.
    9. Farooq, Muhammad & Steinwart, Ingo, 2017. "An SVM-like approach for expectile regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 159-181.
    10. Ibrahim M. Almanjahie & Salim Bouzebda & Zoulikha Kaid & Ali Laksaci, 2024. "The local linear functional kNN estimator of the conditional expectile: uniform consistency in number of neighbors," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 87(8), pages 1007-1035, November.
    11. Gschöpf, Philipp & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Mihoci, Andrija, 2015. "TERES: Tail event risk expectile based shortfall," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-047, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    12. Mohammedi, Mustapha & Bouzebda, Salim & Laksaci, Ali, 2021. "The consistency and asymptotic normality of the kernel type expectile regression estimator for functional data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    13. Brenda López Cabrera & Franziska Schulz, 2017. "Forecasting Generalized Quantiles of Electricity Demand: A Functional Data Approach," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(517), pages 127-136, January.
    14. Daouia, Abdelaati & Padoan, Simone A. & Stupfler, Gilles, 2024. "Extreme expectile estimation for short-tailed data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(2).
    15. Stéphane Girard & Gilles Stupfler & Antoine Usseglio‐Carleve, 2022. "Nonparametric extreme conditional expectile estimation," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 49(1), pages 78-115, March.
    16. Taoufik Bouezmarni & Mohamed Doukali & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2024. "Testing Granger non-causality in expectiles," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 30-51, January.
    17. Otto-Sobotka, Fabian & Salvati, Nicola & Ranalli, Maria Giovanna & Kneib, Thomas, 2019. "Adaptive semiparametric M-quantile regression," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 116-129.
    18. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-030 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Zhang, Feipeng & Xu, Yixiong & Fan, Caiyun, 2023. "Nonparametric inference of expectile-based value-at-risk for financial time series with application to risk assessment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    20. Hamidi, Benjamin & Maillet, Bertrand & Prigent, Jean-Luc, 2014. "A dynamic autoregressive expectile for time-invariant portfolio protection strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-29.
    21. Daouia, Abdelaati & Girard, Stéphane & Stupfler, Gilles, 2018. "Tail expectile process and risk assessment," TSE Working Papers 18-944, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    22. Bonaccolto, Giovanni & Caporin, Massimiliano & Maillet, Bertrand B., 2022. "Dynamic large financial networks via conditional expected shortfalls," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 322-336.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:20:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11009-017-9583-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.