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An inspection game model of the stolen base in baseball: A theory of theft

Author

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  • Theodore L. Turocy

    (School of Economics and CBESS, University of East Anglia)

Abstract

This paper models the stolen base play in baseball as a simple inspection game. The model offers equilibrium predictions relating the frequency with which a stolen base play is attempted, and the frequency with which it is successful. Using an extensive play-by-play dataset from 37 Major League Baseball seasons, qualitative and quantitative support is found for the predictions of the model. An exogenous change in the average number of runs scored per game during the period covered by the dataset provides a natural experiment; the equilbrium model predicts the change in the relationship between attempt and success frequencies observed in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore L. Turocy, 2012. "An inspection game model of the stolen base in baseball: A theory of theft," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 032, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    • Handle: RePEc:uea:aepppr:2012_32
    as

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    File URL: https://ueaeco.github.io/working-papers/papers/afe/UEA-AFE-032.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Turocy, Theodore L., 2005. "Offensive performance, omitted variables, and the value of speed in baseball," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 283-286, December.
    2. David Romer, 2006. "Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Professional Football," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(2), pages 340-365, April.
    3. John Charles Bradbury & Douglas J. Drinen, 2007. "Crime And Punishment In Major League Baseball: The Case Of The Designated Hitter And Hit Batters," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 131-144, January.
    4. Arthur De Vany, 2011. "Steroids And Home Runs," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(2), pages 489-511, April.
    5. Mark Walker & John Wooders, 2001. "Minimax Play at Wimbledon," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1521-1538, December.
    6. John Charles Bradbury & Douglas J. Drinen, 2008. "Pigou at the Plate," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 9(2), pages 211-224, April.
    7. P.-A. Chiappori, 2002. "Testing Mixed-Strategy Equilibria When Players Are Heterogeneous: The Case of Penalty Kicks in Soccer," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1138-1151, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jim Downey & Joseph McGarrity, 2015. "Pick off Throws, Stolen Bases, and Southpaws: A Comparative Static Analysis of a Mixed Strategy Game," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(3), pages 319-335, September.

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    Keywords

    mixed strategy equilibrium; inspection game; baseball;
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