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The Impact of the WWI Agricultural Boom and Bust on Female Opportunity Cost and Fertility

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  • Carl T. Kitchens
  • Luke P. Rodgers

Abstract

Using variation in crop prices induced by large swings in demand surrounding World War I, we examine the fertility response to crop revenue increases from 1910 to 1930. Our estimates from samples utilizing complete count decennial census microdata and newly collected county-level data from state health reports indicate that agricultural price increases reduced fertility, explaining about 9 percent of the overall decline in fertility over the period. The effect persists years after the collapse of the war boom. Importantly, we show that fertility declines were concentrated in women living on the farm and that fertility declined along both the intensive and extensive margins. Combined, the pattern of estimates is consistent with agricultural women experiencing an increase in the opportunity cost of their time.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl T. Kitchens & Luke P. Rodgers, 2020. "The Impact of the WWI Agricultural Boom and Bust on Female Opportunity Cost and Fertility," NBER Working Papers 27530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27530
    Note: DAE DEV LS
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    Cited by:

    1. Brian Beach & Karen Clay & Martin Saavedra, 2022. "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Its Lessons for COVID-19," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 41-84, March.
    2. Daniela Vidart, 2024. "Revisiting the Link Between Electrification and Fertility: Evidence from the Early 20th Century United States," Working papers 2024-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    3. Lennon, Conor, 2023. "Women’s educational attainment, marriage, and fertility: Evidence from the 1944 G.I. Bill," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Guldi, Melanie & Rahman, Ahmed S., 2022. "Little Divergence in America — Market Access and Demographic Transition in the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 15215, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N5 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries

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