IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tsy/journl/journl_tsy_er_2010_3_1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the structural budget balance of the Australian Government

Author

Listed:
  • Tony McDonald

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Yong Hong Yan

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Blake Ford

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • David Stephan

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

Abstract

This paper develops estimates of the structural budget balance of the Australian Government. It describes the methodology and assumptions used in developing these estimates, includes sensitivity analysis, and explains why these estimates differ from those produced by the IMF and OECD.

Suggested Citation

  • Tony McDonald & Yong Hong Yan & Blake Ford & David Stephan, 2010. "Estimating the structural budget balance of the Australian Government," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 3, pages 51-79, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:tsy:journl:journl_tsy_er_2010_3_1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://archive.treasury.gov.au/documents/1881/PDF/04_Structural_Budget_Balance.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
    2. Robert Price & Isabelle Joumard & Christophe André & Makoto Minegishi, 2008. "Strategies for Countries with Favourable Fiscal Positions," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 655, OECD Publishing.
    3. Paul van den Noord, 2000. "The Size and Role of Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers in the 1990s and Beyond," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 230, OECD Publishing.
    4. David Gruen & Amanda Sayegh, 2005. "The Evolution of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 21(4), pages 618-635, Winter.
    5. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    6. Mr. Nigel A Chalk, 2002. "Structural Balances and All That: Which Indicators to Use in Assessing Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 2002/101, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    8. David Gruen & Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2005. "Output Gaps In Real Time: How Reliable Are They?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(252), pages 6-18, March.
    9. Isabell Koske & Nigel Pain, 2008. "The Usefulness of Output Gaps for Policy Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 621, OECD Publishing.
    10. Jin Liu & Tony McDonald, 2010. "China: growth, urbanisation and mineral resource demand," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 2, pages 57-71, July.
    11. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard Eccleston, 2012. "Australia's Future Fund: a future beyond the GFC," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 284-297.
    2. George Kopits, 2014. "Ireland’s Fiscal Framework: Options for the Future," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 45(1), pages 135-158.
    3. Nu Nu Win & Simon Duggan & Phil Garton & Spiro Premetis & Bonnie Li, 2013. "Estimating the structural budget balance of the Australian Government: An update," Treasury Working Papers 2013-01, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised May 2013.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Young Hoon Lee, 2009. "The Impact of Postseason Restructuring on the Competitive Balance and Fan Demand in Major League Baseball," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 219-235, June.
    2. Kumar, Nikeel Nishkar & Patel, Arvind, 2023. "Nonlinear effect of air travel tourism demand on economic growth in Fiji," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Wilton Bernardino & João B. Amaral & Nelson L. Paes & Raydonal Ospina & José L. Távora, 2022. "A statistical investigation of a stock valuation model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-25, August.
    4. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    5. Bill Russell & Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2019. "Breaks and the statistical process of inflation: the case of estimating the ‘modern’ long-run Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1455-1475, May.
    6. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Craig A. Depken & Peter A. Groothuis & Mark C. Strazicich, 2020. "Evolution Of Community Deterrence: Evidence From The National Hockey League," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 289-303, April.
    8. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Guégan, Dominique, 2012. "Breaks or long memory behavior: An empirical investigation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5712-5726.
    9. Jeng-Bau Lin & Chin-Chia Liang & Wei Tsai, 2019. "Nonlinear Relationships between Oil Prices and Implied Volatilities: Providing More Valuable Information," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-15, July.
    10. EL BOUHADI, Hamid & OUAHID, Driss, 2014. "Datation des changements structurels au sein d’une chronique : le cas des séries macroéconomiques marocaines [Dating structural changes in time series : the case of the Moroccan macroeconomic serie," MPRA Paper 68168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bartosz Jóźwik & Betül Altay Topcu & Mesut Doğan, 2024. "The Impact of Nuclear Energy Consumption, Green Technological Innovation, and Trade Openness on the Sustainable Environment in the USA," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-17, August.
    12. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2022. "The behaviour of real interest rates: New evidence from a 'suprasecular' perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 46-64, April.
    13. Jaco P. Weideman & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2016. "Structural Breaks in Renewable Energy in South Africa: A Bai and Perron Break Test Application," Working Papers 201636, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    14. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    15. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "The Euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 954-971, October.
    16. Anthony C. Krautmann & Young Hoon Lee & Kevin Quinn, 2011. "Playoff Uncertainty and Pennant Races," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(5), pages 495-514, October.
    17. Khorshed Chowdhury, 2011. "Dynamics, Structural Breaks and the Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate of Australia," Economics Working Papers wp11-11, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    18. Zakamulin, Valeriy & Hunnes, John A., 2021. "Stock earnings and bond yields in the US 1871–2017: The story of a changing relationship," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 182-197.
    19. Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2022. "Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 152-168, January.
    20. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-64, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    balanced budget; fiscal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tsy:journl:journl_tsy_er_2010_3_1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The Treasury (Commonwealth of Australia) (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/trgovau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.