IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/aareaj/118016.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk premia in Australian interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas, Justin J.
  • Bartley, Scott W.

Abstract

The level of and movements in interest rates and the exchange rate can have a substantial impact on the economic performance of Australia's primary industries. Whether a country and/or exchange risk premium has resulted in higher interest rates and increased volatility in the exchange rate is therefore important to these industries. There is some evidence that a small country risk premium may have emerged during the early 1990s. In line with earlier studies, however, no evidence was found of such a premium during the 1980s. A further finding is that any exchange risk premium may have declined over the last decade or so. Possible links between risk premia and Australia's foreign debt and current account deficits are also examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas, Justin J. & Bartley, Scott W., 1997. "Risk premia in Australian interest rates," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(2), pages 1-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:118016
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.118016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/118016/files/1467-8489.00012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.118016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karfakis, Costas I & Phipps, Anthony J, 1994. "Do Movements in the Forward Discount on the Australian Dollar Predict Movements in Domestic Interest Rates? Evidence from a Time Series Analysis of Covered Interest Parity in Australia in the Late 198," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(62), pages 62-74, June.
    2. Ng, Yew-Kwang & Fausten, Dietrich K, 1993. "Interest-Rate Parity and Divergence of Views on Exchange-Rate Changes: An Upward-Sloping Supply Curve of Funds Even for a Small Country," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(61), pages 272-283, December.
    3. Bruce Felmingham, 1996. "The risk premium on the Australian dollar in the 30-day forward market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 233-235.
    4. repec:bla:ecorec:v:67:y:1991:i:197:p:139-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Froot, Kenneth A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5w65g4zg, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    6. Philip W. Lowe & Robert G. Trevor, 1986. "The Performance of Exchange Rate Forecasts," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8609, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & MacArthur, Alan T., 1988. "Political vs. currency premia in international real interest differentials : A study of forward rates for 24 countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1083-1114, June.
    8. repec:bla:ecorec:v:64:y:1988:i:184:p:2-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Adrian Orr & Malcolm Edey & Michael Kennedy, 1995. "The Determinants of Real Long-Term Interest Rates: 17 Country Pooled-Time-Series Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 155, OECD Publishing.
    10. Applegate, C., 1993. "Sovereign Interference in Private Sector Foreign debt, examples in the 1980'S," CEPR Discussion Papers 286, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    11. D. Johannes Jüttner & Bernd P. Luedecke, 1991. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and Foreign Debt," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(2), pages 139-146, June.
    12. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1989. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4fw7c7bh, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    13. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-391, June.
    14. Jeremy Smith & David W.R. Gruen, 1989. "A Random Walk Around the $A: Expectations, Risk, Interest Rates and Consequences for External Imbalance," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8906, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(1), pages 139-161.
    16. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 227-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Frank Browne, 1991. "Increasing Financial Market Integration, Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 96, OECD Publishing.
    19. Razzaque Bhatti & Imad Moosa, 1995. "An alternative approach to testing uncovered interest parity," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(12), pages 478-481.
    20. Warren J. Tease, 1986. "Risk Premia, Market Efficiency and the Exchange Rate: Some Evidence Since the Float," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp8603, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    21. W. Max Corden, 1991. "Does The Current Account Matter? The Old View And The New," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 10(3), pages 1-19, September.
    22. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & MacArthur, Alan T., 1987. "Political vs. Currency Premia in International Real Estate Differentials: A Study of Forward Rates for 24 Countries," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt31z4k82j, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    23. Fane, G. & Applegate, C., 1992. "The Social Cost of Foreign Debt in the Presence of Sovereign Default Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 280, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    24. M. Manzur, 1988. "How Much are Exchange Rate Forecasts Worth?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 88-18, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David W. R. Gruen & Jeremy Smith, 1994. "Excess Returns in a Small Open Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(211), pages 381-396, December.
    2. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Frank Browne, 1992. "Real Exchange Rates and the Globalisation of Financial Markets," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9203, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Nagayasu, Jun, 2014. "The forward premium puzzle and the Euro," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 436-451.
    4. Alberto Alesina & David W. R. Gruen & Matthew T. Jones, 1991. "Fiscal Adjustment, The Real Exchange Rate and Australia's External Imbalance," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 24(3), pages 38-51, July.
    5. Robert A. Blecker, 1998. "International Capital Mobility, Macroeconomic Imbalances, and the Risk of Global Contraction," SCEPA working paper series. 1998-10, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School, revised Nov 2000.
    6. Tang, Kin-Boon, 2011. "The precise form of uncovered interest parity: A heterogeneous panel application in ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 568-573, January.
    7. Sager, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2014. "Generating currency trading rules from the term structure of forward foreign exchange premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 230-250.
    8. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August.
    9. Grossmann, Axel & Lee, Allissa A. & Simpson, Marc W., 2014. "Forward premium anomaly of the British pound and the euro," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 140-156.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Levy, Daniel, 2004. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Really a Puzzle?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 49-66.
    12. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero, 2016. "A pairwise-based approach to examining the Feldstein–Horioka condition of international capital mobility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 279-297, March.
    13. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    14. Nagayasu, Jun, 2012. "The Forward Premium Puzzle And Risk Premiums," MPRA Paper 42472, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Chinn, Menzie David & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2nb2h4zr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    16. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
    17. Tang, Kin-Boon, 2011. "The precise form of uncovered interest parity: A heterogeneous panel application in ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 568-573.
    18. Hutchison, Michael & Kendall, Jake & Pasricha, Gurnain & Singh, Nirvikar, 2009. "Indian capital control liberalization: Evidence from NDF markets," Working Papers 09/60, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    19. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Pasricha, Gurnain, 2007. "Financial Integration in Emerging Market Economies," MPRA Paper 5278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Waheed, Muhammad, 2009. "Forward rate unbiased hypothesis, risk premium and exchange rate expectations: estimates on Pakistan Rupee-US Dollar," MPRA Paper 33167, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2010.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Economics; Risk and Uncertainty;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:118016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.