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Marital Bargaining and Assortative Matching on Fertility Preference : Evidence based on Cross-sectional Data in China

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  • Meiyi Zhuang
  • Hisahiro Naito

Abstract

Despite relaxed fertility restrictions, China’s birth rate continues to decline. The Universal Two-Child Policy, which encourages considering a second child, often leads to a bargaining process between spouses with differing preferences. Additionally, the skewed sex ratio has increased Chinese women’s bargaining power, emphasizing the need to analyze fertility decisions through marital bargaining. This paper investigates second-child fertility decisions using 2018 China Family Panel Studies data and Ordinary Least Squares regression. We examine assortative matching based on fertility preferences, employing the 2020 provincial-level sex ratio for individuals aged 20–39 as a proxy for women’s bargaining power in the marriage market. Our findings show that achieving consensus on having a second child requires cooperation between spouses, especially when their fertility preferences differ. We also find that marriage matching is not random, with individuals more likely to partner with those sharing the same second-child preference. Further, women with greater bargaining power positively influence their husbands’ desired family size, a correlation not observed in males.

Suggested Citation

  • Meiyi Zhuang & Hisahiro Naito, 2024. "Marital Bargaining and Assortative Matching on Fertility Preference : Evidence based on Cross-sectional Data in China," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2024-002, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.
    • Handle: RePEc:tsu:tewpjp:2024-002
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