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On the Expectations View of the Term Structure, Term Premia and Survey-Based Expectations

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  • MacDonald, Ronald
  • Macmillan, Peter

Abstract

In this paper, U.K. disaggregate survey data of expected future interest rates are used to test the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates at the short end of the maturity spectrum. In the aggregate, the expectations model is rejected, and both time-varying term premia and expected interest rate changes are demonstrated to be important in explaining the slope of the yield curve. Within the aggregate data however, the authors demonstrate that there are some differences with respect to the views of the term structure held. For example, the pure expectations model cannot be rejected for some individuals. Copyright 1994 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • MacDonald, Ronald & Macmillan, Peter, 1994. "On the Expectations View of the Term Structure, Term Premia and Survey-Based Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1070-1086, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:104:y:1994:i:426:p:1070-86
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    Cited by:

    1. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2015. "Testing the expectations hypothesis with survey forecasts: The impacts of consumer sentiment and the zero lower bound in an I(2) CVAR," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 85-101.
    2. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01411824, HAL.
    3. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
    4. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2011. "Time-variation in term premia: International survey-based evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 605-622, June.
    5. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2021. "Term structure of interest rates: Modelling the risk premium using a two horizons framework," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 421-436.
    6. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, February.
    7. Wolff, Christian & Verschoor, Willem F C & Jongen, Ron, 2005. "Time Variation in Term Premia: International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 4959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ornelas, Jose Renato Haas & Silva Jr., Antonio Francisco de Almeida, 2015. "Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-185.
    9. Ronald MacDonald & Ian W. Marsh, 1996. "Hétérogénéité des prévisionnistes : une exploration des anticipations sur le marché des changes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 109-115.
    10. Jan Marc Berk & Klaas Knot, 2001. "The term structure of UIP: evidence from survey data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(7), pages 459-462.
    11. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04141591, HAL.
    12. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2013. "The expectations hypothesis: New hope or illusory support?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1084-1092.
    13. Wolff, Christian & Verschoor, Willem F C & Jongen, Ron & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2008. "Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, February.
    15. Miah, Fazlul & Khalifa, Ahmed Ali & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2016. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations: A comprehensive study of developed and emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 574-590.
    16. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2006. "Anticipations, prime de risque et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt : une analyse des comportements d'experts," Working Papers hal-04138546, HAL.
    17. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2010. "Anticipations, prime de risque et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt : une analyse des comportements d'experts," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 76(2), pages 195-217.
    18. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Direct tests of the expectations theory of the term structure: Survey expectations, the term premium and coefficient biases," MPRA Paper 19815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2018. "Term structure of interest rates: modelling the risk premium using a two horizons framework," Working Papers hal-04141774, HAL.
    20. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2008. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 438-448, December.

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