Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area
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Cited by:
- Lenny Stoeldraijer & Leo van Wissen & Coen van Duin & Fanny Janssen, 2013. "Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(13), pages 323-354.
- Maarten Alders & Nico Keilman & Harri Cruijsen, 2007. "Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 33-69, March.
- Alho, Juha, 2008. "Aggregation across countries in stochastic population forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 343-353.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008.
"Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
- Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2006. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Anna Matysiak & Beata Nowok, 2007.
"Stochastic forecast of the population of Poland, 2005-2050,"
Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(11), pages 301-338.
- Anna Matysiak & Beata Nowok, 2006. "Stochastic forecast of the population of Poland, 2005 – 2050," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Emily A. Marshall, 2015. "Population Projections and Demographic Knowledge in France and Great Britain in the Postwar Period," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(2), pages 271-300, June.
- Bailey Fosdick & Adrian E. Raftery, 2014. "Regional probabilistic fertility forecasting by modeling between-country correlations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(35), pages 1011-1034.
- Rebecca F. Gleditsch & Adrian F. Rogne & Astri Syse & Michael Thomas, 2021. "The accuracy of Statistics Norway’s national population projections," Discussion Papers 948, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Nico Keilman, 2008. "European Demographic Forecasts Have Not Become More Accurate Over the Past 25 Years," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(1), pages 137-153, March.
- Christina Bohk-Ewald & Marcus Ebeling & Roland Rau, 2017. "Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1559-1577, August.
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More about this item
Keywords
stochastic population forecast; empirical forecast errors; prediction intervals; GARCHmodels; TFR; life expectancy; net migration; EEA;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-HEA-2004-11-22 (Health Economics)
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