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European Demographic Forecasts Have Not Become More Accurate Over the Past 25 Years

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  • Nico Keilman

Abstract

Nowadays, demographers, population statisticians, and population forecasters have richer data, more refined theories of demographic behavior, and more sophisticated methods of analysis than they had two or three decades ago. This scientific progress should have made it easier to predict demographic behavior. But analyses of the errors in older forecasts show that demographic forecasts published by statistical agencies in 14 European countries have not become more accurate over the past 25 years. The findings demonstrate that scientific progress in population studies during the previous two to three decades has not kept up with the trend toward less predictable demographic behavior of populations in European countries. There is no reason to be more optimistic about US Census Bureau forecasts. Population forecasts are intrinsically uncertain, hence should be couched in probabilistic terms.

Suggested Citation

  • Nico Keilman, 2008. "European Demographic Forecasts Have Not Become More Accurate Over the Past 25 Years," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(1), pages 137-153, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:34:y:2008:i:1:p:137-153
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00209.x
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    1. Nico Keilman & Dinh Quang Pham, 2004. "Empirical errors and predicted errors in fertility, mortality and migration forecasts in the European Economic Area," Discussion Papers 386, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

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    2. David C. Lane & Özge Pala & Yaman Barlas & Willem L. Auping & Erik Pruyt & Jan H. Kwakkel, 2015. "Societal Ageing in the Netherlands: A Robust System Dynamics Approach," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 485-501, July.
    3. Jakub Bijak & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2010. "Bayesian forecasting of immigration to selected European countries by using expert knowledge," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(4), pages 775-796, October.
    4. Warren C Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov & Patrick Gerland, 2017. "Probabilistic population aging," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-12, June.
    5. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2011. "A Dynamic Extension of the Period Life Table," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(34), pages 831-854.
    6. Rebecca F. Gleditsch & Adrian F. Rogne & Astri Syse & Michael Thomas, 2021. "The accuracy of Statistics Norway’s national population projections," Discussion Papers 948, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    7. Øystein Kravdal, 2010. "Demographers’ interest in fertility trends and determinants in developed countries: Is it warranted?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(22), pages 663-690.
    8. Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo & Alho, Juha M., 2011. "Fiscal sustainability and policy rules under changing demographic forecasts," Discussion Papers 1265, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    9. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2022. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality," SocArXiv 8u34d, Center for Open Science.
    10. Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2023. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1033-1049.
    11. F. Peters & J. P. Mackenbach & W. J. Nusselder, 2016. "Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 687-702, December.
    12. Lassila, Jukka & Valkonen, Tarmo & Alho, Juha M., 2014. "Demographic forecasts and fiscal policy rules," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1098-1109.

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