IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssa/lemwps/2020-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A multi-scale model of virus pandemic: Heterogeneous interactive entities in a globally connected world

Author

Listed:
  • Nicola Bellomo
  • Richard Bingham
  • Mark A.J. Chaplain
  • Giovanni Dosi
  • Guido Forni
  • Damian A. Knopoff
  • John Lowengrub
  • Reidun Twarock
  • Maria Enrica Virgillito

Abstract

This paper is devoted to the multidisciplinary modelling of a pandemic initiated by an aggressive virus, specifically the so-called SARS-CoV-2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, corona virus n.2. The study is developed within a multiscale framework accounting for the interaction of different spatial scales, from the small scale of the virus itself and cells, to the large scale of individuals and further up to the collective behaviour of populations. An interdisciplinary vision is developed thanks to the contributions of epidemiologists, immunologists and economists as well as those of mathematical modellers. The first part of the contents is devoted to understanding the complex features of the system and to the design of a modelling rationale. The modelling approach is treated in the second part of the paper by showing both how the virus propagates into infected individuals, successfully and not successfully recovered, and also the spatial patterns, which are subsequently studied by kinetic and lattice models. The third part reports the contribution of research in the fields of virology, epidemiology, immune competition, and economy focused also on social behaviours. Finally, a critical analysis is proposed looking ahead to research perspectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Bellomo & Richard Bingham & Mark A.J. Chaplain & Giovanni Dosi & Guido Forni & Damian A. Knopoff & John Lowengrub & Reidun Twarock & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2020. "A multi-scale model of virus pandemic: Heterogeneous interactive entities in a globally connected world," LEM Papers Series 2020/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2020/16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lem.sssup.it/WPLem/files/2020-16.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Armanda Cetrulo & Dario Guarascio & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2020. "The Privilege of Working From Home at the Time of Social Distancing," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 142-147, May.
    2. B. T. Grenfell & O. N. Bjørnstad & J. Kappey, 2001. "Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics," Nature, Nature, vol. 414(6865), pages 716-723, December.
    3. David Cyranoski, 2020. "Profile of a killer: the complex biology powering the coronavirus pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 581(7806), pages 22-26, May.
    4. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa & Joanna Weng, 2020. "The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 26866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Reidun Twarock & German Leonov & Peter G. Stockley, 2018. "Hamiltonian path analysis of viral genomes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-3, December.
    6. Pareschi, Lorenzo & Toscani, Giuseppe, 2013. "Interacting Multiagent Systems: Kinetic equations and Monte Carlo methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199655465.
    7. Leland H. Hartwell & John J. Hopfield & Stanislas Leibler & Andrew W. Murray, 1999. "From molecular to modular cell biology," Nature, Nature, vol. 402(6761), pages 47-52, December.
    8. Reidun Twarock & Antoni Luque, 2019. "Structural puzzles in virology solved with an overarching icosahedral design principle," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. repec:aei:rpaper:1008560098 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Ewen Callaway, 2020. "Coronavirus vaccines: five key questions as trials begin," Nature, Nature, vol. 579(7800), pages 481-481, March.
    11. Alan S. Perelson & Avidan U. Neumann & Martin Markowitz & John M. Leonard & David D. Ho, 1996. "HIV-1 Dynamics In Vivo: Virion Clearance Rate, Infected Cell Lifespan, and Viral Generation Time," Working Papers 96-02-004, Santa Fe Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Vanni & David Lambert & Luigi Palatella, 2020. "Epidemic response to physical distancing policies and their impact on the outbreak risk," Papers 2007.14620, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    2. Fang, Fanshu & Ma, Jing & Li, Yanli, 2023. "The coevolution of the spread of a disease and competing opinions in multiplex networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    3. Giovanni Dosi, 2021. "Policy Lessons From Medical Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(6), pages 337-340, November.
    4. Peter Flaschel & Giorgos Galanis & Daniele Tavani & Roberto Veneziani, 2021. "Pandemics and Aggregate Demand: a Framework for Policy Analysis," Working Papers PKWP2025, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    5. Fontanari, José F., 2021. "A stochastic model for the influence of social distancing on loneliness," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 584(C).
    6. Giovanni Dosi, 2021. "Some policy lessons from medical/therapeutic responses to the COVID-19 Crisis: A rich research system for knowledge generation and dysfunctional institutions for its exploitation," LEM Papers Series 2021/19, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. G. Dosi & L. Fanti & M. E. Virgillito, 2020. "Unequal societies in usual times, unjust societies in pandemic ones," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(3), pages 371-389, September.
    8. Maira Aguiar & Giovanni Dosi & Damian A. Knopoff & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2021. "A multiscale network-based model of contagion dynamics: heterogeneity, spatial distancing and vaccination," LEM Papers Series 2021/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maira Aguiar & Giovanni Dosi & Damian A. Knopoff & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2021. "A multiscale network-based model of contagion dynamics: heterogeneity, spatial distancing and vaccination," LEM Papers Series 2021/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. G. Dosi & L. Fanti & M. E. Virgillito, 2020. "Unequal societies in usual times, unjust societies in pandemic ones," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(3), pages 371-389, September.
    3. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 439-458, October.
    4. Ilan Noy & Toshihiro Okubo & Eric Strobl, 2023. "The Japanese textile sector and the influenza pandemic of 1918–1920," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(5), pages 1192-1227, November.
    5. Vladimir Arčabić, 2020. "Koronakriza i što Hrvatska može naučiti iz dosadašnjih recesija," Tradicionalni skup Hrvatskog društva ekonomista u Opatiji - objavljena poglavlja, in: Josip Tica & Katarina Bačić (ed.), Ekonomska politika u 2021. godini - Hrvatska poslije pandemije, volume 28, chapter 1, pages 21-58, Hrvatsko društvo ekonomista (Croatian Society of Economists).
    6. Beland, Louis-Philippe & Brodeur, Abel & Wright, Taylor, 2020. "COVID-19, Stay-at-Home Orders and Employment: Evidence from CPS Data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 559, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Houštecká, Anna & Koh, Dongya & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2021. "Contagion at work: Occupations, industries and human contact," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    8. Gopal K. Basak & Chandramauli Chakraborty & Pranab Kumar Das, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown Strategy in a Pandemic: An Exploratory Analysis for Covid-19," Papers 2109.02512, arXiv.org.
    9. John Gathergood & Fabian Gunzinger & Benedict Guttman-Kenney & Edika Quispe-Torreblanca & Neil Stewart, 2020. "Levelling Down and the COVID-19 Lockdowns: Uneven Regional Recovery in UK Consumer Spending," Papers 2012.09336, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    10. Feras A. Batarseh & Munisamy Gopinath & Anderson Monken, 2020. "Artificial Intelligence Methods for Evaluating Global Trade Flows," International Finance Discussion Papers 1296, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Mahata, Ajit & Rai, Anish & Nurujjaman, Md. & Prakash, Om, 2021. "Modeling and analysis of the effect of COVID-19 on the stock price: V and L-shape recovery," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
    12. Sutimin, & Wijaya, Karunia Putra & Páez Chávez, Joseph & Tian, Tianhai, 2021. "An in-host HIV-1 infection model incorporating quiescent and activated CD4+ T cells as well as CTL response," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 409(C).
    13. Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari & Longmei Zhang, 2021. "The effects of COVID‐19 containment measures on the Asia‐Pacific region," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 469-497, October.
    14. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2022. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach [Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 358-409.
    15. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Alessandro Rebucci, 2020. "Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries," Globalization Institute Working Papers 382, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Marta Fana & Francesco Sabato Massimo & Angelo Moro, 2021. "Autonomy and control in mass remote working during the Covid-19 pandemic. Evidence from a cross-professional and cross-national analysis," LEM Papers Series 2021/28, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    17. Agar Brugiavini & Raluca E. Buia & Irene Simonetti, 2022. "Occupation and working outcomes during the Coronavirus Pandemic," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 863-882, December.
    18. Lorenzo Pareschi & Giuseppe Toscani, 2014. "Wealth distribution and collective knowledge. A Boltzmann approach," Papers 1401.4550, arXiv.org.
    19. Jean-Noël Barrot & Basile Grassi & Julien Sauvagnat, 2020. "Estimating the Costs and Benefits of Mandated Business Closures in a Pandemic," Working Papers hal-02896739, HAL.
    20. Iraj Hosseini & Feilim Mac Gabhann, 2012. "Multi-Scale Modeling of HIV Infection in vitro and APOBEC3G-Based Anti-Retroviral Therapy," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2020/16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask the person in charge to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/labssit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.