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COVID-19 Crisis Monitor: Assessing the Effectiveness of Exit Strategies in the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo A Haddad
  • Renato S Vieira
  • Inacio F Araujo
  • Silvio Ichihara
  • Fernando S Perobelli
  • Karina Bugarin

Abstract

As COVID-19-related health indicators improve after restrictive measures were set in place in different parts of the world, governments are expected to provide guidance on how to ease interventions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. Whereas epidemiologists track the progress of the disease using daily indicators to better understand the pandemic, economic activity indicators are usually available at a lower frequency, and with considerable time lags. We propose and implement a timely tradebased regional economic activity indicator (EAI) that uses high-frequency traffic data to monitor daily sectoral economic activity in different sectors for the Brazilian State of São Paulo, a highly impacted region, overcoming the challenge of real-time assessment of the economy amid the COVID-19 outbreak. We then use this novel set of information combined with hospitalization rates to provide a first assessment of the São Paulo Plan, the COVID-19 exit strategy designed to gradually lifting interventions introduced to control the outbreak in the State. Available data show that, in its first 60 days, the phased strategy pursued in São Paulo has been effective in gradually reactivating economic activity while maintaining the adequate responsiveness of the healthcare system.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo A Haddad & Renato S Vieira & Inacio F Araujo & Silvio Ichihara & Fernando S Perobelli & Karina Bugarin, 2022. "COVID-19 Crisis Monitor: Assessing the Effectiveness of Exit Strategies in the State of São Paulo, Brazil," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2022_10, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2022wpecon10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thiago Christiano Silva & Carlos Eduardo de Almeida & Solange Maria Guerra & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2024. "COVID-19 and Credit Reallocation: evidence from bank branch lending in Brazil," Working Papers Series 601, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Economic Impacts; Input-Output Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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