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Structural propagation of pandemic shocks: an input–output analysis of the economic costs of COVID-19

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  • Eduardo A. Haddad
  • Fernando S. Perobelli
  • Inácio F. Araújo
  • Karina S. S. Bugarin

Abstract

This paper explores the use of simulations in policy decision-making in the Brazilian State of São Paulo in fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a methodology for assessing the daily economic costs of control strategies for mitigating the effects of coronavirus. The method is based on the partial hypothetical extraction approach to input–output systems. Simulated daily scenarios based on different levels of compliance to the control measures are used to help guide the design of sectoral and territorial-based policies to ease lockdown against the coronavirus outbreak, taking into account the economic and sanitary trade-offs. We present examples of simulations that can substantiate top-level decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo A. Haddad & Fernando S. Perobelli & Inácio F. Araújo & Karina S. S. Bugarin, 2021. "Structural propagation of pandemic shocks: an input–output analysis of the economic costs of COVID-19," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 252-270, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:16:y:2021:i:3:p:252-270
    DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2020.1844284
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    Cited by:

    1. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi, 2024. "A regional input-output model of the COVID-19 crisis in Italy: decomposing demand and supply factors," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 100-130, January.
    2. Eduardo A. Haddad & Renato S. Vieira & Inácio F. Araújo & Silvio M. Ichihara & Fernando S. Perobelli & Karina S. S. Bugarin, 2022. "COVID-19 crisis monitor: assessing the effectiveness of exit strategies in the State of São Paulo, Brazil," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(2), pages 501-525, April.

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