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Elemental Tests of the Traditional Rational Voting Model

Author

Listed:
  • Darren Grant

    (Department of Economics, University of Texas at Arlington)

  • Michael Toma

    (Department of Economics, Armstrong Atlantic State University)

Abstract

A simple, robust, quasi-linear, structural general equilibrium rational voting model indicates turnout by voters motivated by the possibility of deciding the outcome is bellcurved in the ex-post winning margin and inversely proportional to electorate size. Applying this model to a large set of union certification elections, which often end in ties, yields exacting, lucid tests of the theory. Voter turnout is strongly related to election closeness, but not in the way predicted by the theory. Thus, this relation is generated by some other mechanism, which is indeterminate, as no existing theory explains the nonlinear patterns of turnout in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Darren Grant & Michael Toma, 2007. "Elemental Tests of the Traditional Rational Voting Model," Working Papers 0709, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:shs:wpaper:0709
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. Grant, 1998. "Searching for the Downsian Voter with a Simple Structural Model," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 107-126, July.
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    8. Matsusaka, John G & Palda, Filip, 1993. "The Downsian Voter Meets the Ecological Fallacy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 77(4), pages 855-878, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Cebula & Franklin Mixon, 2012. "Dodging the vote?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 325-343, February.
    2. Grant, Darren, 2016. "The essential economics of threshold-based incentives: Theory, estimation, and evidence from the Western States 100," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 180-197.
    3. Mei-yin Lin & Yi-ting Tseng & Jue-shyan Wang, 2011. "Closeness and Turnout: Evidence from Election of Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1922-1928.
    4. Johan A Elkink & Sarah Parlane & Thomas Sattler, 2020. "When one side stays home: A joint model of turnout and vote choice," Working Papers 202012, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • L59 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Other
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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