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What makes voters turn out: The effects of polls and beliefs

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  • Agranov, Marina
  • Goeree, Jacob K.
  • Romero, Julian
  • Yariv, Leeat

Abstract

We use laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm - that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal. We exploit a setup that entails stark theoretical effects of information concerning the preference distribution (as revealed through polls) on costly participation decisions. We find that voting propensity increases systematically with subjects' predictions of their preferred alternative's advantage. Consequently, pre-election polls do not exhibit the detrimental welfare effects that extant theoretical work predicts. They lead to more participation by the expected majority and generate more landslide elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Agranov, Marina & Goeree, Jacob K. & Romero, Julian & Yariv, Leeat, 2016. "What makes voters turn out: The effects of polls and beliefs," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Behavior SP II 2016-206, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbmbh:spii2016206
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Collective Choice; Polls; Strategic Voting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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