IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/shf/wpaper/2011017.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation persistence: Implication for a monetary union in the Caribbean

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Cuestas

    (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

  • Carlyn Dobson

    (Division of Economics, Nottingham trent University)

Abstract

In this paper we aim to shed some light on the potential for creating a monetary union in the Caribbean. We analyse the inflation rates for twelve countries using various time series methods. The results show that the inflation rates are mean reverting processes and that there is evidence of a convergence club in inflation rates within the area, which contradicts previous studies. Our contribution implies good news for the creation of a common central bank in the Caribbean.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas & Carlyn Dobson, 2011. "Inflation persistence: Implication for a monetary union in the Caribbean," Working Papers 2011017, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2011017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.shef.ac.uk/economics/research/serps/articles/2011_17.html
    File Function: First version, 2011
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivan Paya & Ioannis A. Venetis & David A. Peel, 2003. "Further Evidence on PPP Adjustment Speeds: the Case of Effective Real Exchange Rates and the EMS," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 421-437, September.
    2. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    3. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    5. Sollis, Robert, 2009. "A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rates in Nordic countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 118-125, January.
    6. Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2009. "Uk Inflation: Persistence, Seasonality And Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 24-44, February.
    7. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance," Working Papers 126, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    8. Dawn Richards Elliott, 2007. "Caribbean regionalism and the expectation of increased trade: Insights from a time-series gravity model," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 117-136.
    9. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Harrison, Barry, 2010. "Inflation persistence and nonlinearities in Central and Eastern European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 81-83, February.
    10. Paul Alagidede & Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2010. "Persistence of Inflationary shocks: Implications for West African Monetary Union Membership," Working Papers 2010020, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2010.
    11. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
    12. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Hinich, Melvin J. & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2008. "Time series test of nonlinear convergence and transitional dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 337-339, September.
    13. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    14. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    15. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    16. Derick Boyd & Ron Smith, 2006. "Monetary regimes and inflation in 12 Caribbean economies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 96-107, May.
    17. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley, 2001. "Inflation and the Poor," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 160-178, May.
    18. Mauricio Mesquita Moreira & Eduardo Mendoza, 2007. "Regional Integration: What is in it for CARICOM?," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2007), pages 97-142, August.
    19. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009. "The Euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 954-971, October.
    21. Alok Bhargava, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(3), pages 369-384.
    22. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 225-247, December.
    23. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    24. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Modified tests for a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 441-469, October.
    25. Myrvin L. Anthony & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2000. "Is the Case for Economic and Monetary Union in the Caribbean Realistic?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 119-144, January.
    26. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Time-varying inflation persistence in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 532-535, March.
    27. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
    28. Fischer, Manfred M. & Stirböck, Claudia, 2004. "Regional Income Convergence in the Enlarged Europe, 1995-2000: A Spatial Econometric Perspective," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-42, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    29. María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    30. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
    31. Mauricio Mesquita Moreira & Eduardo Mendoza, 2007. "Regional Integration: What is in it for CARICOM?," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2007), pages 97-142, August.
    32. Eric Pentecost & Paul Turner, 2010. "Demand and Supply Shocks in the Caribbean Economies: Implications for Monetary Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(10), pages 1325-1337, October.
    33. Shelton Nicholls & Anthony Birchwood & Philip Colthrust & Earl Boodoo, 2000. "The State of and Prospects for the Deepening and Widening of Caribbean Integration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(9), pages 1161-1194, September.
    34. Coenen, Gunter, 2007. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 111-140, January.
    35. William Miles, 2006. "One Continent, One Currency? Varieties of Common Currency Experience in Europe and Latin America," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 411-426, August.
    36. Estefania Mourelle & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis Alberiko Gil‐alana, 2011. "Is There An Asymmetric Behaviour In African Inflation? A Non‐Linear Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 68-90, March.
    37. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    38. Coleman, Simeon, 2010. "Inflation persistence in the Franc zone: Evidence from disaggregated prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 426-442, March.
    39. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    40. Derick Boyd & Ron Smith, 2007. "Institutions and inflation persistence in the Caribbean," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 283-286.
    41. James E. Payne, 2008. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: evidence from the Caribbean region," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(6), pages 501-511, October.
    42. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    43. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Efthymios G. Tsionas, 2007. "Are Regional Incomes in the USA Converging? A Non-linear Perspective," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 525-530.
    44. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Carlyn Ramlogan-Dobson, 2013. "Convergence of Inflationary Shocks: Evidence from the Caribbean," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1229-1243, September.
    2. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2012. "A Note on the Current Account Sustainability of European Transition Economies," Working Papers 2012011, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    3. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2013. "Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(22), pages 3211-3219, August.
    4. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Barry Harrison, 2008. "Testing for stationarity of inflation in Central and Eastern European Countries," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2008/13, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    5. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    6. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Harrison, Barry, 2010. "Inflation persistence and nonlinearities in Central and Eastern European countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 81-83, February.
    7. Hans KREMERS & Andreas LOESCHEL, 2010. "The Strategic Implications of Setting Border Tax Adjustments," EcoMod2010 259600097, EcoMod.
    8. Alagidede, Paul & Coleman, Simeon & Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2012. "Inflationary shocks and common economic trends: Implications for West African monetary union membership," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 460-475.
    9. Gabriel Zsurkis & JoÃo Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2021. "A Re‐Examination of Inflation Persistence Dynamics in OECD Countries: A New Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 935-959, August.
    10. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    11. Miguel Carvalho & Paulo Júlio, 2012. "Digging out the PPP hypothesis: an integrated empirical coverage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 713-744, June.
    12. Estefania Mourelle & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis Alberiko Gil‐alana, 2011. "Is There An Asymmetric Behaviour In African Inflation? A Non‐Linear Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 68-90, March.
    13. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefanía Mourelle, 2009. "Inflation persistence and asymmetries: evidence for African countries," NBS Discussion Papers in Economics 2009/2, Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.
    14. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luís A., 2009. "Further evidence on the PPP analysis of the Australian dollar: Non-linearities, fractional integration and structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1184-1192, November.
    15. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Regis, Paulo José, 2013. "Purchasing power parity in OECD countries: Nonlinear unit root tests revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 343-346.
    16. Wagner, Martin, 2008. "The carbon Kuznets curve: A cloudy picture emitted by bad econometrics?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 388-408, August.
    17. Hallin, Marc & van den Akker, Ramon & Werker, Bas J.M., 2011. "A class of simple distribution-free rank-based unit root tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 200-214, August.
    18. Philip Kostov & John Lingard, 2004. "Regime-switching Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis of UK meat consumption," Econometrics 0409007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Bayer Christian & Jüßen Falko, 2007. "Convergence in West German Regional Unemployment Rates," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 510-535, December.
    20. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Caribbean; inflation persistence; monetary union and unit roots;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2011017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mike Crabtree (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desheuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.