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Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe

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  • Juan Carlos Cuestas

    (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

  • Karsten Steahr

Abstract

This paper analyses the time series properties of the fiscal balance in the 10 EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe. The persistence of shocks in the variable has been analysed by means of unit root tests that account for the possibility of non-linearities and structural changes. The results of the linear and non-linear unit root tests find only mild evidence in favour of the stationarity hypothesis, with asymmetric effects present in a few cases. After controlling for structural changes in the data generation process, the results point to stochastic stationarity of the series. Thus, in spite relatively steady headline figures, the public balance processes exhibit substantial instability in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Steahr, 2011. "Fiscal shocks and budget balance persistence in the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 2011014, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2011014
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    Cited by:

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    2. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2019. "The current account sustainability in Central and Eastern Europe: Has it changed?," Working Papers 2019/10, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    3. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "How sustainable are fiscal budgets in the Kingdom of Swaziland?," MPRA Paper 85149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Paulo José Regis, 2015. "The Sustainability of European External Debt: What have We Learned?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 445-468, August.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mutascu, Mihai & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2012. "Revisiting the Relationship between Electricity Consumption, Capital and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 97-120, September.
    6. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2020. "Changes in sovereign debt dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 63-71, January.
    7. Ismet GOCER & Mehmet MERCAN, 2016. "Which country after Greece? Sustainability of budget deficits in selected EU countries: A panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks under cross-section dependence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 205-220, Autumn.
    8. Ismet GOCER & Mehmet MERCAN, 2016. "Which country after Greece? Sustainability of budget deficits in selected EU countries: A panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks under cross-section dependence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 205-220, Autumn.
    9. Baldi, Guido & Staehr, Karsten, 2016. "The European debt crisis and fiscal reactions in Europe 2000-2014," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 297-317.
    10. Raihan, Selim & Abdullah, S M & Barkat, Aroni & Siddiqua, Salina, 2017. "Mean Reversion of the Real Exchange Rate and the validity of PPP Hypothesis in the context of Bangladesh: A Holistic Approach," MPRA Paper 77172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    12. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Mercedes Monfort, 2021. "Current account sustainability in Central and Eastern Europe: structural change and crisis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 141-153, February.
    13. Bettina Bökemeier, 2017. "Fiscal Sustainability: Does EU Membership Change Policy Behavior? Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 14(2), pages 161-175, December.
    14. Mirdala, Rajmund & Ruščáková, Anna, 2015. "On Origins and Implications of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 68859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mitra Lal Devkota, 2018. "The Dynamic Causality Between Stock Prices And Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence From Nepal," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 5-14, December.
    16. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Regis, Paulo José, 2018. "On the dynamics of sovereign debt in China: Sustainability and structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 356-359.
    17. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2020. "Public finances in the EU-27: Are they sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 181-204, February.
    18. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Staehr, Karsten, 2014. "Government debt dynamics and the global financial crisis: Has anything changed in the EA12?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 64-66.
    19. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Paolo Jose Regis, 2014. "On the changes in the sustainability of European external debt: what have we learned," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unit roots; structural breaks; budget balance; EU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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