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Unemployment and Consumption in Chile

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  • Claudio Soto

Abstract

This article presents an empirical study of the effect of unemployment on aggregate consumption of non-durable goods in Chile (1990-2002). Using an error-correction model, the results show that unemployment lags have a negative and statistically significant sort-run impact on consumption growth. Three hypotheses that relate unemployment and consumption are also analyzed. First, it is shown that unemployment is not a good predictor of future disposable income. Therefore, it does not signal changes in permanent income. Moreover, the results do not support the implications of the certainty-equivalence version of the permanent income hypothesis. Second, there is evidence that unemployment affects income volatility. Hence, the relationship between unemployment and consumption could be explained by the precautionary savings motive. However, for this mechanism to be consistent with the fact that unemployment has a negative impact on consumption growth, the effect of uncertainty on consumption must be persistent. Finally, there is also evidence that unemployment could affect consumption through its effect on income distribution. However, the latter result is not robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Soto, 2004. "Unemployment and Consumption in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 258, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:258
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    Cited by:

    1. Rómulo Chumacero E., 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales With Automated Procedures," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 7(3), pages 47-56, December.
    2. Andrés Solimano & Arístides Torche, 2008. "Income Distribution In Chile, 1987-2006: Analysis And Policy Considerations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 480, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Pierre‐Richard Agénor, 2005. "The Macroeconomics Of Poverty Reduction," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 369-434, July.

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