IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sea/wpaper/wp43.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Machine Learning and Central Banks: Ready for Prime Time?

Author

Listed:
  • Hans Genberg

    (Asia School of Business)

  • Özer Karagedikli

    (South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre and Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA))

Abstract

In this article we review what machine learning might have to offer central banks as an analytical approach to support monetary policy decisions. After describing the central bank’s “problem†and providing a brief introduction to machine learning, we propose to use the gradual adoption of Vector Auto Regression (VAR) methods in central banks to speculate how machine learning models must (will?) evolve to become influential analytical tools supporting central banks’ monetary policy decisions. We argue that VAR methods achieved that status only after they incorporated elements that allowed users to interpret them in terms of structural economic theories. We believe that the same has to be the case for machine learning model.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Genberg & Özer Karagedikli, 2021. "Machine Learning and Central Banks: Ready for Prime Time?," Working Papers wp43, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:sea:wpaper:wp43
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.seacen.org/publications/RePEc/702001-100475-PDF.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastian Doerr & Leonardo Gambacorta & José María Serena Garralda, 2021. "Big data and machine learning in central banking," BIS Working Papers 930, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    3. Ozer Karagedikli & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2019. "Improved methods for combining point forecasts for an asymmetrically distributed variable," CAMA Working Papers 2019-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Babii, Andrii & Ball, Ryan T. & Ghysels, Eric & Striaukas, Jonas, 2023. "Machine learning panel data regressions with heavy-tailed dependent data: Theory and application," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    5. Andrii Babii & Eric Ghysels & Jonas Striaukas, 2022. "Machine Learning Time Series Regressions With an Application to Nowcasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1094-1106, June.
    6. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    7. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    8. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    9. Doruk Cengiz & Arindrajit Dube & Attila S. Lindner & David Zentler-Munro, 2021. "Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 28399, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "The Transmission of International Shocks: A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 71-100, February.
    11. Michael S. Smith & Shaun P. Vahey, 2016. "Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 416-434, July.
    12. Jeremy Fouliard & Michael Howell & Hélène Rey & Vania Stavrakeva, 2020. "Answering the Queen: Machine Learning and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 28302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Huang, Yiping & Qiu, Han & Wang, Jingyi, 2024. "How do machine learning and non-traditional data affect credit scoring? New evidence from a Chinese fintech firm," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2020. "Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators," Working Papers 20-13R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
    15. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999. "Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
    16. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2019. "Machine Learning Methods That Economists Should Know About," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 685-725, August.
    17. Ricardo P. Masini & Marcelo C. Medeiros & Eduardo F. Mendes, 2023. "Machine learning advances for time series forecasting," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 76-111, February.
    18. Rubén Loaiza-Maya & Michael Stanley Smith, 2020. "Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With a Heteroscedastic Inversion Copula," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 470-486, April.
    19. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    20. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
    21. Gelos, Gaston & Gornicka, Lucyna & Koepke, Robin & Sahay, Ratna & Sgherri, Silvia, 2022. "Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    22. Sendhil Mullainathan & Jann Spiess, 2017. "Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 87-106, Spring.
    23. Kilian,Lutz & Lütkepohl,Helmut, 2018. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107196575, October.
    24. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    25. J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
    26. Athey, Susan & Imbens, Guido W., 2019. "Machine Learning Methods Economists Should Know About," Research Papers 3776, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    27. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Mr. Andrew J Tiffin, 2019. "Machine Learning and Causality: The Impact of Financial Crises on Growth," IMF Working Papers 2019/228, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Sulkhan Chavleishvili & Simone Manganelli, 2024. "Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 66-85, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin Baumgaertner & Johannes Zahner, 2021. "Whatever it takes to understand a central banker - Embedding their words using neural networks," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202130, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Daniel Stempel & Johannes Zahner, 2022. "DSGE Models and Machine Learning: An Application to Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202232, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    3. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2020. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Papers 2005.02535, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    4. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    5. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Domenico Giannone & Eric Qian & Argia M. Sbordone, 2021. "A Large Bayesian VAR of the United States Economy," Staff Reports 976, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Daniel Levy & Tamir Mayer & Alon Raviv, 2020. "Academic Scholarship in Light of the 2008 Financial Crisis: Textual Analysis of NBER Working Papers," Working Papers hal-02488796, HAL.
    7. Tsang, Andrew, 2021. "Uncovering Heterogeneous Regional Impacts of Chinese Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 110703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2012. "The Effects of Monetary Policy “News” and “Surprises”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1667-1692, December.
    9. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2016. "Not all international monetary shocks are alike for the Japanese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 822-837.
    10. Robin Braun & Ralf Brüggemann, 2017. "Identification of SVAR Models by Combining Sign Restrictions With External Instruments," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-07, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    11. Andrei Dubovik & Adam Elbourne & Bram Hendriks & Mark Kattenberg, 2022. "Forecasting World Trade Using Big Data and Machine Learning Techniques," CPB Discussion Paper 441, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2021. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 74-107, July.
    13. Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
    14. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    15. Levy, Daniel & Mayer, Tamir & Raviv, Alon, 2022. "Economists in the 2008 financial crisis: Slow to see, fast to act," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    16. Sungurtekin Hallam, Bahar, 2022. "Emerging market responses to external shocks: A cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    17. Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2015. "What drives the global interest rate," Globalization Institute Working Papers 241, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    18. Hachula, Michael & Piffer, Michele & Rieth, Malte, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy, Fiscal Side Effects and Euro Area (Im)balances," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 202-231.
    19. Auer, Simone, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-166.
    20. Dimitris Korobilis, 2020. "Sign restrictions in high-dimensional vector autoregressions," Working Paper series 20-09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sea:wpaper:wp43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Azharin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/seacemy.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.