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Canada’s “COVID-19 Referendum”: Voting in the Early Federal Election of 2021

Author

Listed:
  • Marchand, Joseph

    (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)

  • Wang, Yuhan

    (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)

Abstract

Canada’s 2021 federal election was called early, two years after its previous 2019 election, rather than four years. The Liberal government’s perceived opportunity was to turn minority rule into a majority, based on their ongoing COVID-19 pandemic response and perfect incumbent success rate of recent provincial elections. Harmonizing official voting data of electoral districts to COVID data of more aggregate health regions, this is the first study to examine COVID-19 and voting in Canada, currently on the precipice of another election. Overall, COVID severity was associated with reduced voter turnout in the 2021 election, compared with 2019, as well as an increase in the Liberal vote share and a decrease in the Conservative vote share. Although these findings may have been anticipated, voters in Conservative dominant areas turned out more than voters in Liberal dominant areas, which may not have been anticipated, leading to Liberal gains well below a majority.

Suggested Citation

  • Marchand, Joseph & Wang, Yuhan, 2024. "Canada’s “COVID-19 Referendum”: Voting in the Early Federal Election of 2021," Working Papers 2024-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:albaec:2024_011
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    File URL: https://sites.ualberta.ca/~econwps/2024/wp2024-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on voter turnout," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Hessami, Zohal & Khasanboev, Temurbek, 2024. "Gender Bias in the Reelection of Politicians (When a Crisis Strikes)," IZA Discussion Papers 17081, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Cipullo, Davide & Le Moglie, Marco, 2022. "To vote, or not to vote? Electoral campaigns and the spread of COVID-19," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Leromain, Elsa & Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague, 2022. "Voting under threat: Evidence from the 2020 French local elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Fernandez-Navia, Tania & Polo-Muro, Eduardo & Tercero-Lucas, David, 2021. "Too afraid to vote? The effects of COVID-19 on voting behaviour," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Canada; COVID-19; Early Elections; Public Health; Voting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • K16 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Election Law

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