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Blaming migrants doesn’t pay: the political effects of the Ebola epidemic in Italy

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This paper investigates the political consequences of perceived health risks asso- ciated with immigration in Italy. We leverage the exogeneity of the 2014 Ebola epidemic, which resulted in almost no cases in Italy but triggered a significant pub- lic reaction, with extreme right-wing politicians claiming ongoing immigration could endanger citizens’ health. In a differences-in-differences framework, we examine the changes in the vote share of the main right-wing and anti-immigration party, Lega, across Northern Italian municipalities before and during the Ebola outbreak. Treat- ment is based on perceived exposure to risk-Ebola immigrants, proxied by the local historical concentration of immigrants from countries affected by Ebola in 2014. Re- sults document a drop in political support for Lega in municipalities with a larger share of risk-Ebola migrants. Our findings, robust to falsification tests and alter- native treatment definitions, suggest that strategically exploiting a health crisis to garner support for anti-immigrant policies can eventually backfire.

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  • Boldrini, Michela & Conzo, Pierluigi & Fiore, Simona & Zotti, Roberto, 2023. "Blaming migrants doesn’t pay: the political effects of the Ebola epidemic in Italy," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202320, University of Turin.
    • Handle: RePEc:uto:dipeco:202320
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