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Too afraid to vote? The effects of COVID-19 on voting behaviour

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  • Fernandez-Navia, Tania
  • Polo-Muro, Eduardo
  • Tercero-Lucas, David

Abstract

This paper studies the causal effect of local exposure to COVID-19 on voting behaviour and electoral outcomes using evidence from the regional elections held in Spain on 12 July 2020. Exploiting the variation in exposure to COVID-19 and using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we show that turnout was between 2.6 and 5.1 percentage points lower in municipalities that experienced positive cases of COVID-19. In addition, the results show a substantial increase in the probability of voting for nationalist parties. We discuss the idea of perceived fear being the potential mechanism driving our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernandez-Navia, Tania & Polo-Muro, Eduardo & Tercero-Lucas, David, 2021. "Too afraid to vote? The effects of COVID-19 on voting behaviour," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:poleco:v:69:y:2021:i:c:s0176268021000136
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102012
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    Cited by:

    1. Bordignon, Massimo & Franzoni, Federico & Gamalerio, Matteo, 2024. "Is Populism reversible? Evidence from Italian local elections during the pandemic," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on voter turnout," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Leromain, Elsa & Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague, 2022. "Voting under threat: Evidence from the 2020 French local elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Besley, Timothy & Dray, Sacha, 2023. "The political economy of lockdown: Does free media matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Massimo Bordignon & Federico Franzoni & Matteo Gamalerio, 2023. "Is Populism reversible? Evidence from Italian local elections during the pandemic," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def124, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    6. Alena Bicakova & Stepan Jurajda, 2024. "COVID-19 and Political Preferences Through Stages of the Pandemic: The Case of the Czech Republic," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp778, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    7. Cipullo, Davide & Le Moglie, Marco, 2022. "To vote, or not to vote? Electoral campaigns and the spread of COVID-19," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Francesco Armillei & Enrico Cavallotti, 2021. "Concurrent elections and voting behaviour: evidence from an Italian referendum," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21164, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Elections; Voting behaviour; Turnout; Vote share;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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