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Processing Trade, Exchange Rates, and the People’s Republic of China’s Bilateral Trade Balances

Author

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  • Xing, Yuqing

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of processing trade in the People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s bilateral trade balances and the impact of the yuan’s appreciation on processing trade. The analysis is based on panel data covering the PRC’s 51 trading partners from 1993–2008. The empirical analysis shows that: (1) processing trade accounts for 100% of the PRC’s overall trade surplus and can explain most of its bilateral trade balances; (2) the PRC’s processing trade shows a significant regional bias—its processing exports to East Asian economies are three times those to other regions while its processing imports from East Asian economies are eleven times those from other regions; (3) the PRC is one of the major sources of its own processing imports, accounting for 16.8% of its total processing imports from all 51 trading partners; and (4) the appreciation of the yuan would affect both processing imports and exports in the same direction—specifically, a 10% real appreciation of the yuan would reduce not only the PRC’s processing exports by 9.6% but also its processing imports by 3.9%. Therefore, a moderate appreciation of the yuan would have a very limited impact on the PRC’s trade balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Xing, Yuqing, 2011. "Processing Trade, Exchange Rates, and the People’s Republic of China’s Bilateral Trade Balances," ADBI Working Papers 270, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0270
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Tuuli Koivu, 2008. "China'S Exchange Rate Policy And Asian Trade," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 53-92.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, Maria C., 2013. "How FDI influences the triangular trade pattern among China, East Asia and the U.S.? A CGE analysis of the sector of Electronics in China," Conference papers 332317, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. THORBECKE, Willem, 2012. "East Asian Supply Chains and Relative Prices: A survey of the evidence," Policy Discussion Papers 12006, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2014. "How FDI influences the triangular trade pattern among China, East Asia and the U.S.? A CGE analysis of the sector of Electronics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 77-88.
    4. Reza Y. Siregar & C.S. Lim, Vincent, 2011. "Real Sector Propagation of the Recent Global Financial Crisis: An Integrative Report," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp83, April.
    5. Arndt, Sven W., 2011. "Adjustment in an Open Economy with Two Exchange-Rate Regimes," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 11-22.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    processing trade; east asia trade; bilateral trade balances; prc processing trade; yuan appreciation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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