IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/ecoint/0670.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On Trade Balance and Exchange Rates: Further Evidence from China’s Bilateral Trade - La bilancia commerciale e i tassi di cambio: ulteriori evidenze dalle bilance commerciali bilaterali cinesi

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammadi, Hassan

    (Illinois State University, Department of Economics)

  • Yue, Kan

    (Illinois State University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

We investigate long-run relations and short-run dynamics between China’s bilateral trade balance and real exchange rates with thirteen major trading partners over 1981-2008. Maximum likelihood tests of cointegration reveal no evidence of significant long-run relationship between the two variables. These findings are robust to endogenous breaks in long-run relations, nonlinear relations in the adjustment process, and the sample size. There is also no evidence that real exchange rates have a significant effect on the trade balance in the short run. These are reflected in tests of Granger-causality, impulse response functions and variance decompositions. Thus, there is no support for the view that China’s large and growing trade surplus is a reflection of undervalued RMB. As such, policies aimed at revaluing RMB do not necessarily contribute to a significant decline in China’s trade surplus. - In questo studio vengono esaminate la relazione di lungo periodo e le dinamiche di breve periodo tra le bilance commerciali bilaterali cinesi e i tassi reali di cambio con i maggiori tredici partner nel periodo 1981-2008. I test di cointegrazione maximum likelihood non evidenziano significative relazioni di lungo periodo tra le due variabili. Questi risultati resistono a rotture endogene nelle relazioni di lungo periodo, in quelle non lineari nel processo di aggiustamento e alla dimensione del campione. Inoltre non emerge evidenza che i tassi reali di cambio abbiano un effetto significativo sulla bilancia commerciale nel breve periodo. Ciò è riscontrato nel test di causalità di Granger, nelle funzioni di risposta agli impulsi e nelle scomposizioni di varianza. Non c’è quindi sostegno alla tesi per cui il grande e crescente surplus commerciale cinese sarebbe una conseguenza della sottovalutazione del renminbi. Pertanto politiche volte alla sua rivalutazione non porterebbero necessariamente ad una significativa riduzione del surplus commerciale cinese.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammadi, Hassan & Yue, Kan, 2012. "On Trade Balance and Exchange Rates: Further Evidence from China’s Bilateral Trade - La bilancia commerciale e i tassi di cambio: ulteriori evidenze dalle bilance commerciali bilaterali cinesi," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 65(4), pages 581-604.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0670
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iei1946.it/RePEc/ccg/MOHAMMADI%20YUE%20581_604.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    2. Zhang, Zhichao, 2001. "China's Exchange Rate Reform and Exports," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 34(1-2), pages 89-112.
    3. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    4. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    5. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2006. "The J Curve: China Versus Her Trading Partners," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 323-343, October.
    7. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2008. "The J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Canada and the U.S," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(3), pages 207-225, July.
    9. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Tuuli Koivu, 2008. "China'S Exchange Rate Policy And Asian Trade," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 53-92.
    10. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Examining the relationship between trade balance and exchange rate: the case of China's trade with the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 507-510.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Yongqing Wang, 2008. "The J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between US and China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(21), pages 2735-2747.
    13. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    14. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    15. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2008. "S-Curve at the industry level: evidence from US–UK commodity trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 141-152, August.
    17. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dene T. Hurley & Nikolaos Papanikolaou, 2018. "An Investigation of China‐U.S. Bilateral Trade and Exchange Rate Changes Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(2), pages 162-179, June.
    2. Ogali, Oscar I.O. & Okoro, Emeka E. & Olafuyi, Saburi G., 2023. "Assessing consensus on nexus between natural gas consumption and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    3. Hernán Enríquez Sierra & Jacobo Campo Robledo & Antonio Avendaño Arosemena, 2015. "Relaciones regionales en los precios de vivienda nueva en Colombia," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 25-47, June.
    4. Md Shahiduzzaman & Allan Layton & Khorshed Alam, 2015. "On the contribution of information and communication technology to productivity growth in Australia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 281-304, November.
    5. Stavros Stavroyiannis, 2022. "Cointegration and ARDL specification between the Dubai crude oil and the US natural gas market," Papers 2206.03278, arXiv.org.
    6. Costantini, Valeria & Martini, Chiara, 2010. "The causality between energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-sectoral analysis using non-stationary cointegrated panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 591-603, May.
    7. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, March.
    8. Md. Shahiduzzaman & Khorshed Alam, 2014. "A reassessment of energy and GDP relationship: the case of Australia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 323-344, April.
    9. Dogan, Eyup & Seker, Fahri, 2016. "Determinants of CO2 emissions in the European Union: The role of renewable and non-renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 429-439.
    10. Mensah, Justice Tei, 2014. "Carbon emissions, energy consumption and output: A threshold analysis on the causal dynamics in emerging African economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 172-182.
    11. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    12. de Jesus, Diego Pitta & Lenin Souza Bezerra, Bruno Felipe & da Nóbrega Besarria, Cássio, 2020. "The non-linear relationship between oil prices and stock prices: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Bekun, Festus Victor & Etokakpan, Mfonobong Udom & Driha, Oana M., 2019. "A road to enhancements in natural gas use in Iran: A multivariate modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Leiva, Benjamin & Liu, Zhongyuan, 2019. "Energy and economic growth in the USA two decades later: Replication and reanalysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 89-99.
    15. Wang, Chun-Hsuan & Lin, Chun-Hung A. & Yang, Chih-Hai, 2012. "Short-run and long-run effects of exchange rate change on trade balance: Evidence from China and its trading partners," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 266-273.
    16. Tang, Chor Foon, 2008. "Is inflation always a monetary phenomenon in Malaysia?," MPRA Paper 19778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    18. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    19. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    20. Wu, Jyh-lin, 1998. "Are budget deficits "too large"?: The evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 519-528.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asymmetric Adjustments; Causality; Cointegration; Real Exchange Rates; Structural Breaks; Trade Balance; Unit Roots;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0670. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Angela Procopio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cacogit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.