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Hazard Analysis on Public–Private Partnership Projects in Developing Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Minsoo

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Han, Xuehui

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Quising, Pilipinas

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Villaruel, Mai Lin

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

Developing Asia’s infrastructure gap results from both inadequate public resources and a lack of effective channel to mobilize private resources toward desired outcomes. The public–private partnership (PPP) mechanism has evolved to fill the infrastructure gap. However, PPP projects are often at risk of becoming distressed or worst being terminated because of the long-term nature of contracts and the many different stakeholders involved. This paper applies survival time hazard analysis to estimate how project-related, macroeconomic, and institutional factors affect the hazard rate of the projects. Empirical results show that government’s provision of guarantees, involvement of multilateral development banks, and existence of a dedicated PPP unit are important for a project’s success. Privately initiated proposals should be regulated and undergo a competitive bidding to reduce the hazard rate of the project and the corresponding burden to government. Economic growth leads to successful project outcomes. Improved legal and institutional environment can ensure PPP success.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Minsoo & Han, Xuehui & Quising, Pilipinas & Villaruel, Mai Lin, 2018. "Hazard Analysis on Public–Private Partnership Projects in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 548, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0548
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Trebilcock & Michael Rosenstock, 2015. "Infrastructure Public-Private Partnerships in the Developing World: Lessons from Recent Experience," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(4), pages 335-354, April.
    2. World Bank, 2002. "Unsolicited Proposals : Competitive Solutions for Private Infrastructure," World Bank Publications - Reports 11357, The World Bank Group.
    3. Spackman, Michael, 2002. "Public-private partnerships: lessons from the British approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 283-301, September.
    4. Shiying Shi & Heap-Yih Chong & Lihong Liu & Xiaosu Ye, 2016. "Examining the Interrelationship among Critical Success Factors of Public Private Partnership Infrastructure Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-20, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Osei-Kyei & Vivian W. Y. Tam & Ursa Komac & Godslove Ampratwum, 2023. "Review of the Relationship Management Strategies for Building Flood Disaster Resilience through Public–Private Partnership," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Wang, Nan & Akimoto, Keigo & Nemet, Gregory F., 2021. "What went wrong? Learning from three decades of carbon capture, utilization and sequestration (CCUS) pilot and demonstration projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Wei Li & Jie Li & Siwei Sun, 2023. "Influence of public credit risk on private capital in public–private partnership models," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 1330-1343, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    infrastructures; investment policy; public–private partnership; survival analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts

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