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The Cost of Greening Stimulus: A Dynamic Discrete Choice Analysis of Vehicle Scrappage Programs

Author

Listed:
  • Chao Wei

    (George Washington University)

  • Shanjun Li

    (Cornell University)

Abstract

During the recent economic crisis, many countries have adopted stimulus programs designed to achieve two goals: to stimulate economic activity in lagging durable goods sectors and to protect or even enhance environmental quality. The environmental benefits are often viewed and much advocated as co-benefits of economic stimulus. This paper investigates the potential tradeoff between the stimulus and environmental objectives in the context of the popular U.S. Cash-for-Clunkers (CFC) program by developing and estimating a dynamic discrete choice model of vehicle ownership. Results from counterfactual analysis based on several specifications all show that the design elements to achieve environmental benefits significantly limit the program impact on demand stimulus: the cost of vehicle demand stimulus after netting out environmental benefits can be up to 77 percent higher under the program than that from an alternative policy design without the design elements aimed at the environmental objective.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Wei & Shanjun Li, 2015. "The Cost of Greening Stimulus: A Dynamic Discrete Choice Analysis of Vehicle Scrappage Programs," 2015 Meeting Papers 722, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:722
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Myrto Kalouptsidi & Paul T. Scott & Eduardo Souza‐Rodrigues, 2021. "Identification of counterfactuals in dynamic discrete choice models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 351-403, May.
    2. Keaton S. Miller & Wesley W. Wilson & Nicholas G. Wood, 2020. "Environmentalism, Stimulus, And Inequality Reduction Through Industrial Policy: Did Cash For Clunkers Achieve The Trifecta?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1109-1128, July.
    3. Shanjun Li, 2018. "Better Lucky Than Rich? Welfare Analysis of Automobile Licence Allocations in Beijing and Shanghai," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2389-2428.
    4. Zaman, Hosain & Zaccour, Georges, 2020. "Vehicle scrappage incentives to accelerate the replacement decision of heterogeneous consumers," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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