IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/enreec/v87y2024i7d10.1007_s10640-024-00872-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate, Technology and Value: Insights from the First Decade with Mass-Consumption of Electric Vehicles

Author

Listed:
  • Gøril L. Andreassen

    (Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU))

  • Jo Thori Lind

    (University of Oslo)

Abstract

Adoption of low-carbon technology is key to mitigating climate change. A possible unwanted consequence of fast technological progress is that products get outdated before their technical lifetime is over. We investigate whether the market value of electric vehicles, characterized by rapid technological progress, declines faster over their lifetime than gasoline vehicles, which represent a mature technology. We use novel data from Norway, the market with the highest market shares for electric vehicles in the world. The data are from the largest web platform for secondhand vehicles over the period 2011–2021. Prices of electric vehicles decline faster than gasoline vehicles. This seems to be driven by the electric vehicles with below median driving range. We hypothesize that the large price drop is mainly due to the fast technological improvement of electric vehicles.

Suggested Citation

  • Gøril L. Andreassen & Jo Thori Lind, 2024. "Climate, Technology and Value: Insights from the First Decade with Mass-Consumption of Electric Vehicles," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(7), pages 1783-1844, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:87:y:2024:i:7:d:10.1007_s10640-024-00872-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-024-00872-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10640-024-00872-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10640-024-00872-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    2. Strittmatter, Anthony & Lechner, Michael, 2020. "Sorting in the used-car market after the Volkswagen emission scandal," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    3. Pasquale Schiraldi, 2011. "Automobile replacement: a dynamic structural approach," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 42(2), pages 266-291, June.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2012. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 131-166, February.
    5. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Marc Rysman, 2012. "Dynamics of Consumer Demand for New Durable Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(6), pages 1173-1219.
    6. Alessandro Gavazza & Alessandro Lizzeri & Nikita Roketskiy, 2014. "A Quantitative Analysis of the Used-Car Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3668-3700, November.
    7. Robert H. Porter & Peter Sattler, 1999. "Patterns of Trade in the Market for Used Durables: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Balcer, Yves & Lippman, Steven A., 1984. "Technological expectations and adoption of improved technology," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 292-318, December.
    9. James H. Stock, 2020. "Climate Change, Climate Policy, and Economic Growth," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 399-419.
    10. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2012. "The Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from the 2009 Cash for Clunkers Program," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1107-1142.
    11. Bond, Eric W, 1983. "Trade in Used Equipment with Heterogeneous Firms," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 688-705, August.
    12. R. M. Solow & J. Tobin & C. C. Weizsäcker & M. Yaari, 1971. "Neoclassical Growth with Fixed Factor Proportions," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 9, pages 68-102, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Scott Barrett, 2009. "The Coming Global Climate-Technology Revolution," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 53-75, Spring.
    14. Olivier De Groote & Frank Verboven, 2019. "Subsidies and Time Discounting in New Technology Adoption: Evidence from Solar Photovoltaic Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2137-2172, June.
    15. Jerome Adda & Russell Cooper, 2000. "Balladurette and Juppette: A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(4), pages 778-806, August.
    16. Brett R. Gordon, 2009. "A Dynamic Model of Consumer Replacement Cycles in the PC Processor Industry," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(5), pages 846-867, 09-10.
    17. Susanna Esteban & Matthew Shum, 2007. "Durable-goods oligopoly with secondary markets: the case of automobiles," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(2), pages 332-354, June.
    18. Aurélie Glerum & Lidija Stankovikj & Michaël Thémans & Michel Bierlaire, 2014. "Forecasting the Demand for Electric Vehicles: Accounting for Attitudes and Perceptions," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(4), pages 483-499, November.
    19. Sallee, James M. & West, Sarah E. & Fan, Wei, 2016. "Do consumers recognize the value of fuel economy? Evidence from used car prices and gasoline price fluctuations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 61-73.
    20. James Archsmith & Erich Muehlegger & David S. Rapson, 2022. "Future Paths of Electric Vehicle Adoption in the United States: Predictable Determinants, Obstacles, and Opportunities," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 71-110.
    21. Jiawei Chen & Susanna Esteban & Matthew Shum, 2013. "When Do Secondary Markets Harm Firms?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 2911-2934, December.
    22. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    23. Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2002. "Turnover of Used Durables in a Stationary Equilibrium: Are Older Goods Traded More?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1390-1413, December.
    24. Rosenberg, Nathan, 1976. "On Technological Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(343), pages 523-535, September.
    25. Kenneth Gillingham & Fedor Iskhakov & Anders Munk-Nielsen & John Rust & Bertel Schjerning, 2022. "Equilibrium Trade in Automobiles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(10), pages 2534-2593.
    26. Devavrat Purohit, 1992. "Exploring the Relationship Between the Markets for New and Used Durable Goods: The Case of Automobiles," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 11(2), pages 154-167.
    27. Stephen P. Holland & Erin T. Mansur & Andrew J. Yates, 2021. "The Electric Vehicle Transition and the Economics of Banning Gasoline Vehicles," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 316-344, August.
    28. Chia-Wen Chen & Wei-Min Hu & Christopher R. Knittel, 2021. "Subsidizing Fuel-Efficient Cars: Evidence from China's Automobile Industry," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 152-184, November.
    29. Katalin Springel, 2021. "Network Externality and Subsidy Structure in Two-Sided Markets: Evidence from Electric Vehicle Incentives," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 393-432, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cathrine Hagem & Snorre Kverndokk & Eric Nævdal & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2022. "Policies for electrification of the car fleet in the short and long run. Subsidizing electric vehicles or subsidizing charging stations?," Discussion Papers 980, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Masakazu Ishihara & Andrew T. Ching, 2019. "Dynamic Demand for New and Used Durable Goods Without Physical Depreciation: The Case of Japanese Video Games," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(3), pages 392-416, May.
    2. Alessandro Gavazza & Alessandro Lizzeri & Nikita Roketskiy, 2014. "A Quantitative Analysis of the Used-Car Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3668-3700, November.
    3. Pasquale Schiraldi, 2011. "Automobile replacement: a dynamic structural approach," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 42(2), pages 266-291, June.
    4. Lacourbe, Paul, 2016. "Durable goods leasing in the presence of exporting used products to an international secondary market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(2), pages 448-456.
    5. Kenneth Gillingham & Fedor Iskhakov & Anders Munk-Nielsen & John Rust & Bertel Schjerning, 2019. "Equilibrium trade in automobile markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 7650, CESifo.
    6. Gautam Gowrisankaran & Marc Rysman, 2012. "Dynamics of Consumer Demand for New Durable Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(6), pages 1173-1219.
    7. Alessandro Gavazza & Andrea Lanteri, 2021. "Credit Shocks and Equilibrium Dynamics in Consumer Durable Goods Markets [“Balladurette and Juppette: A Discrete Analysis of Scrapping Subsidies”]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2935-2969.
    8. Blonigen, Bruce A. & Knittel, Christopher R. & Soderbery, Anson, 2017. "Keeping it fresh: Strategic product redesigns and welfare," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 170-214.
    9. Victor Aguirregabiria & Victor Aguirregabiria & Aviv Nevo & Aviv Nevo, 2010. "Recent Developments in Empirical IO: Dynamic Demand and Dynamic Games," Working Papers tecipa-419, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    10. Richard Blundell & Ran Gu & Soren Leth-Petersen & Hamish Low & Costas Meghir, 2019. "Durables and Lemons: Private Information and the Market for Cars," Economics Papers 2019-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    11. Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Markellos, Raphael N., 2015. "Dynamic interaction between markets for leasing and selling automobiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 260-270.
    12. Shanjun Li & Youming Liu & Chao Wei, 2022. "The Cost Of Greening Stimulus: A Dynamic Analysis Of Vehicle Scrappage Programs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1561-1594, November.
    13. Takeshi Fukasawa, 2022. "The Biases in Applying Static Demand Models under Dynamic Demand," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-18, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Jul 2022.
    14. Clerides, Sofronis & Hadjiyiannis, Costas, 2008. "Quality standards for used durables: An indirect subsidy?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 268-282, July.
    15. Pasquale Schiraldi, 2006. "Second-Hand Markets and Collusion by Manufacturers of Semidurable Goods," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-028, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    16. Rik L. Rozendaal & Herman R. J. Vollebergh, 2021. "Policy-Induced Innovation in Clean Technologies: Evidence from the Car Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 9422, CESifo.
    17. Javier D. Donna, 2021. "Measuring long‐run gasoline price elasticities in urban travel demand," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(4), pages 945-994, December.
    18. Chao Wei & Shanjun Li, 2014. "The Cost of Greening Stimulus: A Dynamic Discrete Choice Analysis of Vehicle Scrappage Programs," Working Papers 2014-12, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    19. Adam Copeland, 2014. "Intertemporal substitution and new car purchases," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(3), pages 624-644, September.
    20. Eric W. Bond & Toshiaki Iizuka, 2014. "Durable Goods Price Cycles: Theory And Evidence From The Textbook Market," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 518-538, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electric vehicles; Energy transition; Low-carbon technologies; Secondhand market; Technological progress;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:87:y:2024:i:7:d:10.1007_s10640-024-00872-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.