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Labor Market Polarization, the Decline of Routine Work, and Technological Change: A Quantitative Evaluation

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  • Christian vom Lehn

    (Brigham Young University)

Abstract

Technological change is a prominent hypothesis for the recent polarization of the labor market and the related decline for occupations specializing in performing routine tasks. In this paper, I provide a quantitative evaluation of this hypothesis. To do so, I build an extension of the standard growth model which allows for endogenous determination of the demand and supply for occupational labor in response to investment specific technological change. I further evaluate the extent to which this channel of technological change can account for recent declines in aggregate employment and the labor share of income. My analysis finds that technological change is able to account for a large fraction of changes in occupational employment and earnings, as well as the decline in the labor share, through the year 2000, but is unable to reconcile many of these patterns in the subsequent decade. In particular, after 2000, the model significantly overpredicts wages and hours for higher skilled occupations. This is at odds with both the recent measured slowdown in demand for these occupations as well as the hypothesis that slowing technological change can account for this phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian vom Lehn, 2015. "Labor Market Polarization, the Decline of Routine Work, and Technological Change: A Quantitative Evaluation," 2015 Meeting Papers 151, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:151
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    Cited by:

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    2. Maya Eden & Paul Gaggl, 2018. "On the Welfare Implications of Automation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 15-43, July.
    3. Maya Eden & Paul Gaggl, 2019. "Capital Composition and the Declining Labor Share," CESifo Working Paper Series 7996, CESifo.
    4. vom Lehn, Christian, 2018. "Understanding the decline in the U.S. labor share: Evidence from occupational tasks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 191-220.
    5. Cortes, Guido Matias & Jaimovich, Nir & Siu, Henry E., 2017. "Disappearing routine jobs: Who, how, and why?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 69-87.
    6. Siu, Henry E, 2018. "Comment on “Short-run pain, long-run gain? Recessions and technological transformation”," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 45-47.
    7. Nicholas Kozeniauskas, 2022. "What’s Driving the Decline in Entrepreneurship?," Working Papers w202217, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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